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Analysis for Debris Flow Disaster Insurance Risk on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Author: ZhangLei
Tutor: LiuLi
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course:
Keywords: Debris flow Risk level Insurance risk Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation
CLC: X43
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 92
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Debris flow is a sudden devastating natural disaster. It happens more in the mountains. China has vast land. In the total land area mostly are high mountains. So it can be subject to large debris flows countries. Debris flow hazard insurance on the affected areas are playing the role of post-disaster compensation. At present, this field of insurance in the debris flow is still in exploratory stage which is waiting for further research.The risk of debris flow disaster itself is a fuzzy concept. This paper is on the base of characteristics of debris flow. Firstly, I chose the risk factors of debris flow disaster which are based on the idea of fuzzy mathematics. Then this paper classifies these factors and use the comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the risk of debris flow disaster. Then we established a debris flow analysis of insurance risk level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, and use the model to analyze administrative regions of Beijing in order to establish an empirical analysis of insurance risk.Debris flow is caused by a variety of risk factors. The degree of debris flow risk factors are divided into three major categories. We named risk factors like type of human activity factors and economic class factors. Evaluation set V will be established as none, low, medium, high, high-risk five levels. According to the different types of factor set for the characteristics, we establish the corresponding membership function. We use these functions to make a single factor fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. And then entropy method are used to weight each factor. Use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematical model of the same factors to make a comprehensive evaluation, which concluds regional debris flow risk, the primary human activities and economic evaluation. The result is a simultaneous evaluation by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in degree two of the evaluation matrix. Because of the major categories of raw data comes from different sources, this article using the AHP to determine weights of criteria level. At last under the evaluation matrix and weight, we use Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in degree two to calculate the debris flow risk degree as the comprehensive evaluation. And ultimately we get the result of the risk degree of each Administrative Region in Beijing.This debris flow constructed a mathematical model of Insurance Risk for all areas of debris flow disaster insurance risk analysis, which gives a different level of administrative regions method for determining the degree of risk for insurance companies. The insurance companies can use the results to determine the partition of debris flow insurance premiums rates. The result also provides a theoretical basis to the companies on decisions making. At the same time, the result can be use to help the government for disaster prevention and disaster precautions.

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > Disasters and their prevention > Natural disasters and their prevention
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