Dissertation > Excellent graduate degree dissertation topics show

Application and Research on Combined Forecasting Model Based on Grey System and Neural Network Theory

Author: TongXinAn
Tutor: QiXiaoGang
School: Xi'an University of Electronic Science and Technology
Course: Applied Mathematics
Keywords: Combined forecasting GM(1,1) model Grey Verhulst model BPneural network
CLC: N941.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 45
Quote: 0
Read: Download Dissertation

Abstract


Grey combined forecasting model is one of the main research directions in the combined forecasting theory, and the organic integration of the grey model with other models is an important content in the grey combined forecasting model. In this paper, the basic concepts of the grey prediction model and artificial neural network are presented, based on their modeling mechanism, the combination of grey GM (1,1) model and BP neural network as well as the grey Verhulst model and BP neural network are studied, three combined forecasting models are established for accuracy enhancement of prediction:(1) The combined forecasting model GM-BP1based on grey GM(1,1) model and BP neural network theory:Firstly, the error sequence is obtained by GM(1,1) model using original data sequence, and then in order to gain a forecasting error sequence, the BP neural network is built up to train the regression of error sequence. Finally, a new forecasting value is obtained while summing the GM(1,1) model prediction and forecasting error sequence. This new model correct the error of GM(1,1) model prediction using BP neural network, and its accuracy has been significantly improved.(2) The combined forecasting model GM-BP2based on grey GM(1,1) model and BP neural network theory:This model uses the partial-data sequence of the original data to a create partia-data GM(1,1) model group, and build a BP neural network to establish the nonlinear relationship between the fitted values and original data, the generated network estimates the forecasting development trend of the partia-data GM(1,1) model group, and achieves better results in the medium-and long-term forecast.(3) The combined forecasting model Verhulst-BP based on grey Verhulst model and BP neural network theory:The combination mode of grey GM(1,1) model and BP neural network, in which appeared the GM-BP2model is extended to the combination of grey Verhulst model and BP neural network. This model is not only able to handle a S-type or a single-peak-type sequence, but also has better prediction accuracy than the original Verhulst model.The application demonstrates that the three models are valid and acceptable.

Related Dissertations

  1. Based on sinter quality prediction systems and industrial application integration model,TF046.4
  2. Grey Theory in the durability of concrete application,TU375
  3. Study on Prediction of Demand for Construction Land in Qianjiang City,F224
  4. Distributed power generation system spot price Gray prediction model,N941.5
  5. The Traffic Forecasts Based on GM-BP Model,U491
  6. The Instability Mechanism and Research of Deformation Prediction in Ding Jiafen Landslide,P642.22
  7. Of Grey theory in non-coal mine blasting assessment and accident prediction,TD235.41
  8. Grey Theory and Its Application of Automatic Coagulation Dosing System Forecasting of Water Works,TQ085.4
  9. Research on Grey Modeling and Prediction of Ultimate Bearing Capacity of Single Pile,N941.5
  10. Improvement to GM(1, 1) Model and Its Application,N941.5
  11. Total retail sales of social consumer goods in China based on gray model and the ARMA model study,F126
  12. The Prophecy and Analyse about Shen Yang Area’s Highway-flow,F542;U492.413
  13. GM models based on improved mine safety accident prediction and analysis,F426.1
  14. Research on the Gray Prediction Model of Open-pit Slope Deformation,TD325.4
  15. Research of Grey Theory Predictive Model on Incidence of Virus Hepatitis,R575.1
  16. Application of Three Model in Forecasting Incidence of the Main Communicable Diseases,R183
  17. Study on Combination Model of ARIMA and GM in Forecasting Population Mortality Rate of China,C924.2
  18. Based on Gray Theory Forecasting Analysis to the Income of Urban Residents,F323.8
  19. An Empirical Analysis on Urban-rural Income Gap and Influence Factors of China,F224
  20. Improvement and Application of GM(1,1) Model,F224
  21. Based on the Land Ecosystem Service Value the Land Use of Optimal Allocation,X171

CLC: > SCIENCE AND > Journal of Systems Science > Systems,modern systems theory > Gray system theory
© 2012 www.DissertationTopic.Net  Mobile