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Research Based on the Combination of Elements of the Disaster Scenarios

Author: MaQianLi
Tutor: LiXiangYang
School: Harbin Institute of Technology
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: disaster events scenario description combination of elements
CLC: X4
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 35
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Abstract


The continued occurrence of the disaster brought incalculable damage tohuman beings, the same time, experts and scholars in the field of global disasterresponse is also ongoing research and innovation in the theory and methods torespond to disasters.Wenchuan earthquake disaster: now material civilization ishighly developed, the human and the natural environment more closely linked case,the disaster is not just a direct role in human harm, it can also seriously damaged theinfrastructure of human society, triggering other types of disasters, which makesmore obviously a serious negative consequences of disasters, and disaster relief tocope with the situation more complex, chaotic, disaster relief policy makers can notfully access to disaster information. In the case of this situation, based on theelements of the scenario analysis method to describe and show the disaster sceneand its future evolution, to provide decision makers with comprehensive, criticalinformation so that it can give reasonable and timely decisions.This paper studies the background, after the background, then put forward thisarticle to study the problem; Summary of related research at home and abroad forthe problem, summarize the advantages and disadvantages of the present study, todetermine the basis of this study, and then come to the overall research frameworkof the paper; first to build a scene model, the response measures based on theproperty status of the scenarios given, define the scene of the disaster system, scenereconstruction, scene elements the meaning of the concept, they existed before thecontact; process to extend the general events to define the four disaster events stage,namely the occurrence, development, evolution, and the end of the process of thisSec, and analysis to explore the above process characteristics and mechanism;explores the characteristics and sources of information of the disaster event and howto get re-treatment, in order to build a reasonable scenarios; then, given the elementsof the definition of the disaster within the system, and that in a disasterevent process, the mutual influence and transformation of the disaster elements,which runs through the elements of portfolio theory, the scene of the disaster eventsbuild to lay the basis for the theoretical part of the. Explore the ice cover disasterelements and elements of disaster events in the conversion between the thresholdtheories, analysis of the East Japan earthquake disaster scene description to build atheoretical foundation for the next chapter. Finally, the East Japan earthquakedisaster of2011resulted in a nuclear power plant nuclear spill, for example, the useof analytical methods based on the combination of elements of disaster scenarios,and its detailed analysis. Also to build a disaster scenario models presented in thispaper will be divided into generation of disasters, evolution, the end of these four stages and each stage of the specified hazard bearing body scenario design, on thispaper The description and analysis methods are given practical application.

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > Disasters and their prevention
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