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Carbon Emissions Trading Policy Based on Bilateral Negotiation Model and Dynamic Simulation Design

Author: XuZuo
Tutor: ZuoGuangHui
School: Nanjing Forestry University
Course: Forest Management
Keywords: Carbon emissions trading Forest carbon sink project Bilateral negotiation Cuttingemissions by itself Environment factor
CLC: X196
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 22
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Carbon trading is the current environmental problems by widespread concern, is also aneffective way to use market mechanism to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and forest carbonsink while still in the small-scale trial and exploratory stage in our country, but the outlook isgenerally positive. Especially in the world climate conference, the commitment that to the yearof2020, carbon dioxide emissions intensity in China fell by40%-45%and forest area, volumegrowth further affirms the significance of forest carbon sinks, and promote the research oncarbon trading market. In this background, This paper analyses the current situation and futureof carbon markets at home and abroad, draw lessons from the environmental economic problemsuch as water pollution emissions trading. put forward preliminary the bilateral negotiationmodel which take forest carbon as initial carbon donor in the application of carbon trading,and strive to achieve the functions which offset emissions trading market gap, reduce thesociety to reduce total cost, regulate region ecological environment, actively push highemissions and low output enterprise to cut carbon emissions by themselves. This model ofcarbon trading market Introduce the environmental influence coefficient, emissions reductionrate, discrete marginal cost concept, build the main two types of transactions-forest carbon sinkproject and the subjects of carbon emissions enterprise, carbon emissions enterprise and carbonemissions enterprise, discuss in detail strategy selection and negotiation between the seller andthe buyer transactions and calculation method of factor of volume, pricecost, income and so onunder the four specific trading mode, especially make a prospective study that create the tradingmodel with factor calculation formula based on the two sides’ cutting by themselves anddiscrete marginal cost.In order to reflect the trade process more intuitively, the paper take advantage of Patches,Turtles subjects of NetLogo platform to express carbon sink forest farms, body in the market,use the Logo language to complete algorithm design of the model of forest farm–emissionssubject, negotiation with two sides’cutting by themselves. According to part of the forest farmsin zhejiang province second class survey data, the output value of industry on behalf of theenterprise, the regional ecological environmental quality, industry economic operation andenergy consumption data, we can obtain index value of the carbon sink forest certification ofcredit, the benchmark price, each enterprise should reduce the amount, quota, discrete reductionrate/cutting quantity, unit cost cutting, environmental factor. Program run several times andeliminate correct abnormal data, then get factors of specific trading volume, price, cost/benefitand overall social cost of emission reduction. Through the analysis and induction, forest carbonsinks have multiple benefits of society, ecology, economy, and possess characteristics ofinformation transparency, lower transaction costs, stable credit, with broad prospects fordevelopment.The model provides train of thought to obtain emission rights outside of CDMprojects of emissions subject-emissions subject.The negotiation model based on two sides’cutting by themselves are an important and effective way under the current situation that bigdifference between with cutting costs and reducing amount of various industries, fill the gap forenterprises which didn’t get enough of emission rights in carbon sink forest–emissionssubjects, and reduces the social total cutting cost, at the same time, encourage the low energyintensive production enterprise initiative for equipment modification, technology updating, reduce their emissions at the same time sell spare parts, this portion of the earningsadded industrial upgrading, forming a virtuous cycle.In general, the carbon trading market established by paper basicity achieve the functionsand purpose,but some administrative intervention and the strategy of choice buyer and theseller are still worthy to be further discussed and improved, such as regulatory measure ofguiding price under forest farm-emissions subject model; the measure of the initial distributionof emission rights; environment factor’s influence on the market price mechanism etc.

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