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Research on the the Measurement of Core Inflation

Author: ZhaoYan
Tutor: ChenLiMing
School: Hunan University
Course: Statistics
Keywords: price index core inflation index exclusion time series model
CLC: F822.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 181
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Inflation is an important manifestation of a country’s macroeconomic situation, it relates to a country’s economic development, social stability and people’s living standard. National central banks on core inflation, widespread attention as a policy tool due to its usefulness. Therefore, the study concept and measure of core inflation methods of calibration for the policy directions of China’s inflation also have a proactive role. From domestic inflation has been on a number of literature can be seen, the existing research on core inflation, the majority focused on the concept of core inflation definition, impact of the causes of and countermeasures to resolve and so on. To this end, the core inflation measure to conduct research as well as theoretical studies have been carried out in order, the screening is particularly important.From the perspective of monetary policy, core inflation is also known as "the central bank’s inflation", which reflects the central bank’s monetary policy can directly control the inflation, the price index and the existence of a link money growth The long-term or long-lasting parts, contributes to short-and medium-term inflation expectations. From the specific mathematical tools and methods of calculation point of view, the current measure of core inflation can be divided into statistical approaches and modeling ways to two main categories: the period between the core CPI index can be directly compared. Core inflation are usually calculated based on the original survey of the traditional price index, in which the price index based on the proper handling of access. However, the development trend, the major Western countries, statistical agencies and central banks have begun to shift to using methods such as the limited impact of estimation method for the preparation of a comprehensive core consumer price index.From the preparation method of point of view, because of the status quo of China’s economic reform and statistical data are not complete, so a class like the SVAR for data requirements and economic stability required a relatively high dynamic model approach is not suitable, but should focus on the development based on the Statistical analysis of the measure of core inflation index. Taken together, this paper adopts the method of core inflation excluding food, have some stabilizing fluctuations, it reflects the role of long-term trends, but by SAS fitting time-series model results also reached good results. Taking into account the data availability in China, as well as ease of calculation, the calculation of core inflation in the price index of China’s specific methods of choice, it is advisable first of all remove method used as a measure of core inflation index.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Inflation
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