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Cognitive biases affect and deviant improve research newsboy problem

Author: LiuHongLian
Tutor: LiuYongMei
School: Central South University
Course: Management Science and Engineering
Keywords: newsvendor problem behavioral factors cognitive bias feedback feedback frequency
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 46
Quote: 0
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Abstract


The newsvendor problem which concerned behavioral factors is the important content of the supply chain research,it focus on two matters: the frist is how different behavioral factors affect newsvendor’s decision,the second is how to reduce decision bias. Most early studies employ mathematical models to consider it that are due to the classical newsvendor model (some are based on prospect theory), which involve in the behavioral factors of individual decision-makes, such as risk aversion, risk-seeking preferences, loss avoidance, regret aversion, over confidence, stock-aversion and waste-aversion. Schweitzer&Cachon (2000) frist employ experiment research the newsvendor problem, and they explained that there is "pull-to-centor" phenomena in newsvendor decision. And they also indicated that "subjects are not only affected by one behavioral element, but also influenced by multiple factors "Later, researchers devised distinct experiments to find out how to improve decisions from the side of information and frequency of feedback, sample differences and so onThis study analyed early studies, proved the effct on the newsvendor decision of the behavior factors. And then we execute empirical research on the relation between individual cognitive bias and decision.At last we we devise new way to reduce decision bias.Firstly part, we form our dynamic model about various behavioral factors after analyzing the known elements and the significant factors in the practical process of decision during experiment. Secondly, we execute empirical research on individual bias of cognitive and decision due to the significant factors of the first step. At the same time, we introduce time-pressure to make our research have a easy access to reality. In addition, combining the first conclusion with the improvement of known empirical study in the newsvendor problem, we devise new projects to make our decision better and do the related experiments to test and verify.The frist part reveals that decision of subjects is significantly affected by risk-aversion and early-demand chasing(one of anchor and insufficient adjustment heuristic) under high-profit condition; decision is evidently influenced by loss-aversion and early-demand chasing under low-profit condition.The second part shows that, anchoring and insufficient adjustment, loss-aversion, risk-aversion and the overall risk attitude all has a significant positive correlation with dependent variable and on the contrary, gain risk-aversion negative under low profit; loss-aversion, risk-aversion and easy-heuristics all has a significant positive correlation with dependent variable, and on the contrary gain risk-aversion and anchoring and insufficient adjustment negative under high profit. Additionally, the time-pressure can lower the influence of decision bias of individual cognition, but the decision performance drops under time-pressure.And the improving experiment manifest that, the reduction of the frequency of demand feedback under low profit will significantly decrease the bias and increase the performance; the reduction of the frequency of income feedback under high profit will significantly decrease the bias.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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