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The Study of the Anomalistic Demand Risk of Supply Chain

Author: ChenShiChao
Tutor: LiuJunHao
School: Shihezi University
Course: Agricultural Economics and Management
Keywords: Demand Uncertainty Anomalistic Demand Risk Strategy Matching ARIMA Model
CLC: F274
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 35
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Abstract


The concept of supply chain management (SCM) has been increasing discussed in academia since the 1980s and lately companies have also started to work according to its principles. Nevertheless, when the uncertainty of external circumstance in demand become more and more active, the supply chain has more risks. Today people focus on the anomalistic demand risk of supply chain. Until now, the consciousness on this is so rare that it’s necessary and urgent to study on supply chain risk management.The paper aims to build the comparative mature study framework system, i.e. the paper find the method for identifying the main factor of the anomalistic demand risk after discussing the sources of risks and their characters. Then the paper puts forward the relevant strategy. So that, corporations can benefit from SCM paradigm as well as keep away the anomalistic demand risk. So, the paper studies according to the following steps.The fist and second is to build up theory basis and propose the problems. The paper shows the basic information about the study on supply chain and puts the shortage of the current study based on the literature survey of previous studies.The third is to study the cause of the anomalistic demand risk. The thesis collects the studies on the literature survey, and analyse the affinity between the demand uncertainty and bullwhip effect and the anomalistic demand risk. Then take the demand uncertainty and bullwhip effect as the main factors in the system of the anomalistic demand risk of supply chainThe forth is to identify the basic of the anomalistic demand risk. The paper find out the basic of the anomalistic demand risk based on the first and the second parts, and do the example research through the method of IDEF.The fifth is to find out the control strategy based on the anomalistic demand risk. The control strategy has two faces. First is to decrease the damage because of the anomalistic demand risk by putting up the ability to respond; the second is to estimate the demand by ARIMA model and find out the control strategy of the anomalistic demand risk:one is improve the operations connected the parameter of ARIMA to make the estimation for demand, the other is to adopt centralized information system.Finally, the thesis proposes the key conclusions and the limitation of the research, and then it puts out the further research area.The creative contributions of this research include:first, the dissertation puts forward a comparative mature study framework system; second, the dissertation builds up the analysis paradigm for the anomalistic demand risk based on demand uncertainty and the supply chain operation; the third is to put forward the process control strategy.

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