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Relational Study between Heat Waves and the Daily Resident Mortality in Shantou Jinping Area

Author: ChenHeng
Tutor: LiLiPing
School: Shantou University
Course: Epidemiology and Health Statistics
Keywords: heat waves generalized additive models daily mortality distributed lag model
CLC: R188
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 94
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Objective Discussion the influence of heat waves to the Shantou Jinping Areas daily mortality.Methods In this paper, semi-parametric generalized additive model is used to study the relationship between 2005-2007 average daily temperature and the daily mortality, and through the distributed lag model to observe every day lag on the impact of daily mortality.Results Through fits 2005-2007 year the coastal city daily mortality rate and the daily average temperature relation, obtains between them the relations to assume approximately"V". Summer the daily average temperature every elevates 1℃, the relative risk factor increases 0.036. In the establishment of the semi-parametric generalized additive regression model, the daily average temperature and daily mortality a few particularly significant linear relationship (p<0.001), stepwise regression of the temperature hysteresis of lagl, lag2, lag3 should be screened for lag3 drawn into the model of the most meaningful, in particular a significant linear relationship (p<0.001). Through the distributed lag model can be observed lag0, lagl of daily mortality impact of the most obvious.Conclusions The heat wave has the disadvantageous influence to the daily mortality for urban residents. In order to cope with more and more frequentheat waves Events threat, we should be in accordance with regional characteristics of the Shantou Jinping Area, to take corresponding measures to reduce potential losses.

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CLC: > Medicine, health > Preventive Medicine,Health > Epidemiology and Prevention of Disease > Medical geography
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