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Study on the Wind Power Forecasting of the Wind Farm

Author: SunJinSong
Tutor: LiuJianXin
School: North China Electric Power University (Hebei)
Course: Theory and New
Keywords: Wind power prediction ARIMA Residual series prediction Wake effects
CLC: TM614
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 567
Quote: 6
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Abstract


Wind power output forecast for wind power system dispatching operation management has a very important significance. This paper mainly USES the time series analysis method to study the short-term forecast wind power. First of all, to wind farms history wind speed data analysis, tranquilization processing, the establishment of time series prediction of the ARIMA model; Based on the model for the future of the wind speed time advanced six step prediction, and gives the residual sequence prediction method to remedy the results, in order to improve the prediction accuracy. In the wind speed based on the results of short-term prediction, comprehensive consideration of wind generator power output characteristics of wind turbine and the wake effect, the establishment of a wind farm output power short-term prediction model. Finally, the actual wind farms in a historical data as an example, using Matlab 7.1 programming for the algorithm simulation, in order to achieve the desired results.

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CLC: > Industrial Technology > Electrotechnical > Power generation, power plants > Variety of power generation > Wind power
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