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Dependence Analysis of Electricity Consumption and GDP Based on Copula Function

Author: HuangYi
Tutor: ZhengLie
School: Hubei University of Technology
Course: Applied Computer Technology
Keywords: GDP Electricity consumption Copula Correlation
CLC: F222.33
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 99
Quote: 1
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Abstract


The electric power industry is the main power source for the development of the national economy , to maintain coordinated development of electricity consumption and economic growth , is crucial for a country . China's economy is currently in the middle stage of industrialization , and economic characteristics in the high energy-consuming economy , resource output -based economy led to economic development and electricity consumption with closely related . Electricity investment and production decisions , often by studying the relationship between the rate of growth in consumption and gross domestic product ( GDP ) growth rate , the basis for future planning of the gross domestic product ( GDP ) data to predict the growth of electricity consumption . Meanwhile , GDP is the most closely watched economic statistics in the macroeconomy , and is considered to be the most important indicator to measure the development of the national economy . Very complex calculation of GDP growth , many scholars in the study of economic problems , often through the growth rate of electricity consumption to judge a country's GDP growth rate . What is the relationship between electricity consumption and GDP , many scholars discussed . However, in the discussion of their relationship , still using traditional linear correlation coefficient analysis , has serious limitations . The use of the more popular copula function - based research methods , the focus of this paper to study . This paper first introduces related indicators and Copula method , and then collected from 1984 to 2007 , China 's electricity consumption and GDP data to build the model correlation between electricity consumption and GDP , compared with the classic correlation analysis model using Copula function to get better results , and the results show that there is a strong correlation between the two , and further discussions with the relationship between the rate of growth in consumption and GDP growth . In building a model of electricity consumption and GDP , kernel density estimation method to determine the distribution with the edge of the rate of growth in consumption and GDP growth estimated density function of the joint distribution of kernel density estimation method , and then find the distribution function Sklar theorem , obtained using interpolation method Copula function , and finally calculated under Copula all relevant indicators , such as Kendall'sτ Spearman'sρ compared with the linear correlation coefficient r .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic Statistics > Specialized economic statistics > Gross Domestic
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