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Analysis of Fuzzy Risk on Earth Dams

Author: HanRuiFang
Tutor: LiZongKun
School: Zhengzhou University
Course: Hydraulic Structure Engineering
Keywords: Embankment dams Fuzzy Risk Dam slope instability Seepage failures Flood overtopping MATLAB Monte-Carlo method
CLC: TV641
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 346
Quote: 6
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Abstract


China is damming, the number of embankment dams have ranked first in the world, the crash rate also top the list, can be said that the risk of dam, embankment dams, especially. The dam across the country plays an important role in the development of the national economy. However, the potential threat of the dam is also a huge crash will bring serious damage to the downstream areas, and as the old dam, increasing the number of risk dam, dam safety issues has drawn increasing attention, and This dam risk analysis also rapidly launch worldwide. This paper describes the basic concepts of risk analysis, theoretical and computational methods. Only consider the randomness of uncertainty for traditional risk analysis, without certainty fuzziness proposed should take full account of the randomness and fuzziness, fuzzy risk analysis. And the use of risk analysis theory and fuzzy mathematical knowledge the fuzzy risk calculation model, and using a level set of fuzzy variable blur to deal with the risk of non-fuzzy quantity using traditional risk calculation method for solving fuzzy probability. View of the number of our earth dam crash than the major, and the embankment dam slopes instability penetration dam destruction and excessive flood overtopping crashed the embankment dam accident three main mode key research in the following: 1 penetration damage and flood overtopping fuzzy risk model, in a comprehensive analysis of the various factors that affect the embankment dam crash randomness and fuzziness on the basis of established embankment dam slopes instability. Use of the characteristics of the analytical method for solving difficult mathematical model for fuzzy risk using the simplified method and discrete numerical method for discretization, according to the basic principle of the Monte-Carlo method using MATLAB calculation program for solving the risk probability. 3, the embankment dam slopes instability, dam infiltration and excessive flood overtopping fuzzy risk model is applied to Longxing reservoir, the calculation results and the literature [56] dam safety appraisal results are consistent, which proves the build a model of rationality and feasibility of the correctness of the calculation method. Dam risk analysis, to fully consider the uncertainty of various factors randomness and fuzziness, the resulting risk value interval value to determine the value of the interval value compared to the traditional risk is more reasonable and more in line with the actual engineering, so the dam Fuzzy risk analysis is feasible. Fuzzy risk standard because no dam failure, the article does not consider the fuzzy risk criteria for safety evaluation.

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CLC: > Industrial Technology > Hydraulic Engineering > Water control,hydraulic structures > Dams > Earth dam (local material dams, fill dams )
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