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Since that China has joined in WTO ( World Trade Organization) ,our country will challenge to more intensity world competition. In order to further develop agricultural production, it is necessary to continuously improve agricultural productivity , thus the agricultural mechanization demands will become higher and higher.As the important composition of agriculture modernization , agricultural mechanization is the outcome of the co-operation between industrial technology and agricultural technology , its ponderance and use is becoming more and more important in the process of entirely agricultural modern construction . This paper has entirely analysed agricultural mechanization and forecasted its development trend , based on its development characteristics , principles and problems existed . It has most important significations at aspect of expediting development of agricultural mechanization .This paper adopted the points of systemic theory and summarized the definition , characteristics and uses of agricultural mechanization , it also has analysed the aims and environment of the agricultural mechanization system. This paper is divided into six chapters as follows:Chapter 1, Introduction:discuss of the present research and applied status , about agricultural mechanization and chaos at home and abroad, technology routine and main methods.Chapter 2, Systemic Analysis on agricultural mechanization: Based on system theory , this paper definite agricultural mechanization and its characteristics , summarize its use, analyse its aims and environments like economy environment , nature environment , political environment, social environment and so on , build the structure for its analysis and point out the development of agricultural mechanization is a dynamic economic process.Chapter 3 ,Summarization of chaos theory : briefly introduce the definition and characteristics of chaos and correlative concepts. Mainly introduce the basic theory of the phase space reconstruction ,fractal and fraction dimension, detailedly introduce Lyapunov exponent, fraction dimension and so on, and build a scientific theory foundation for chaostic judging and chaos forecasting of agricultural mechanization system.Chapter 4, Judging time series of agricultural mechanization system Chaostic : Detailedly introduce several common methods of judging like power spectrum ,PCA, Lyapunov exponent ,small data and so on,carry out judging with the methods of PCA, Lyapunov exponent for its characteristics .Chapter 5, Forecasting time series of agricultural mechanization system: entirely introduce the methods of chaos forecasting , carry out local method for its characteristics,and compared with slip exponent method.Chapter six, Conclusions and expectations of the paper, draws the main creating points of the paper and present the main direction and the field which should be studied in the future.
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