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The Theory and Practice of Engineering Project Risk Management

Author: MaFeng
Tutor: SongJiRong
School: Southwest Jiaotong University
Course: Structural Engineering
Keywords: Project Risk Risk Management Monte Carlo simulation
CLC: F284
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2003
Downloads: 1334
Quote: 29
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Abstract


The project risk everywhere and at all times . The risk may bring disaster may bring profits , the key is how to treat the risk , and effective risk management . Practice has proved that to successfully reach circumvent engineering risk , cost , and even increase the purpose of profit , risk management must be implemented . The paper first analyzes the characteristics of risk concepts and features , as well as project risk and risk management . Secondly , the project risk management process - risk identification , risk analysis and assessment , risk control and decision-making were described . Risk identification is the basis of risk management ; risk analysis and assessment is the key to risk management ; risk management decision-making is the core of risk management . Focuses on the Monte Carlo simulation techniques in project risk analysis , and Monte Carlo simulation of unilateral direct costs by the civil engineering costs for a project , and further demonstrated that the method as a risk analysis techniques has a unique superiority and broad applicability . Monte Carlo simulation due to the need to produce a large number of random numbers with a certain probability distribution , it is necessary to implement the process through the use of computers , this paper, the Matlab software powerful mathematical calculations , instead of the traditional programming languages ??generate random numbers , and the completion of the application of the software programming throughout the simulation . The use of Matlab software makes programming the workload greatly simplifies the procedure is straightforward , high efficiency . This article aims to do some exploration in theory , provide the correct treatment of project risk method for project management of project risk management , and hope to use to guide practice . Focused on the application of the Monte Carlo simulation techniques in risk analysis of the project , an illustrative example of the superiority of the method and the broad application prospects .

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