Dissertation > Excellent graduate degree dissertation topics show

Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction Method of Winter Temperature over China

Author: ChenXiaoLan
Tutor: WuHongBao
School: Nanjing University of Information Engineering
Course: Meteorology
Keywords: winter temperature over China ensemble forecast canonical correlation analysis equal ensemble regression ensemble
CLC: P423
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 167
Quote: 0
Read: Download Dissertation

Abstract


The predictors are the monthly mean data of the surface temperature over thecontinent of Europe and Asia, the height over 500hPa of Northern Hemisphere, SST(sea surface temperature) over tropical Indian Ocean and SST over North Pacificin summer from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. The sample data are the monthly meantemperature in winter of 160 stations over China provided by Beijing MeteorologyCenter. The canonical correlation analysis prediction is used to establishforecasting relationship. Then the ensemble canonical correlation predictionmethod is used to predict winter temperature over China. The forecast skill isanalyzed and independent samples are validated. The results show that differentpredictors have different forecast skill in various regions. When the trainingperiod is 53 years, among the four predictors tested in this text, the surfacetemperature over the continent of Europe and Asia gives the highest skill, theheight over 500hPa of Northern Hemisphere takes second place, SST over tropicalIndian Ocean takes third place, SST over North Pacific takes lastly place. The testshows that ECC method which ensembles several predictors can recognize weeklyforcing in local regions. It ensembles various predictors’ skill, so it can providemore general and substantial foundation than the prediction by single predictor.ECC used by regression can exhibition the importance of various predictorsforecasting various regions, so it improves skill substantially in comparison withsimple equal ensemble mean. In the independent samples-validation, SST overtropical Indian Ocean gives the highest general skill, the surface temperature overthe continent of Europe and Asia takes second place, SST over North Pacific takesthird place, the height over 500hPa of Northern Hemisphere takes lastly place. The independent samples-validation also shows that ECC can offset single predictor’ slack. Regression ensemble can give more substantial skill. ECC can also predictthat the winter temperature over China has been increasing approximately.

Related Dissertations

  1. And medium-sized industrial enterprises in Hebei Province Technology Resource Allocation Efficiency Analysis,F224;F425
  2. Quantitative Study on the Factors of Shanghai Services Exports,F752.62
  3. Research on the Correlation Analysis between Corporate Governance and Performance of Listed Company,F272;F224
  4. Relationship between Enterprise Competitive Intelligence and Enterprise Performance,F272
  5. Astudy on Influence of Transportation on County Economy in Hubei Province,F127;F224
  6. The Research about Evolution of Industrial Structure Effect Resource Utilization in Hunan Province,F127;F205
  7. Hindcast for the 1998 Summer Heavy Precipitation in the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley,P434
  8. An Empirical Analysis on Urban-rural Income Gap and Influence Factors of China,F224
  9. Based on the Canonical Correlation Analysis of the Yangtze River Delta Region Harbor Group with Hinterland Economy Interactive Mechanism Research,F224
  10. Gene-or Region-Based Statistics for Genome Wide Association Study Via Dimension Reduction Techniques,R195.1
  11. Based on face and fingerprint multi- modal identification system research,TP391.41
  12. Research on Face Recognition Technique Based on Canonical Correlation Analysis,TP391.41
  13. Research on Two-dimensional Feature Extraction Methods,TP391.41
  14. A Research on Association between the Status of Marriage and Family and the Social Capital about the Women in the Village-in-city,C913
  15. Canonical Correlation Analysis in Data Mining Application,TP311.13
  16. Study on Ginseng Soil Major Nutrients and Enzyme Activity,S567.51
  17. Study on Heredity of Quantitative Characters and Breeding of New Variety in Melon,S652
  18. Research on the Correlation among Genetic Diversity, Chemical Analysis and Antimicrobial Activity of Azadirachta Indica Leaf,R93
  19. Study on Mutual Development Relations between Higher Education and Regional Ecnomic Development,F127
  20. Research on Precision Centrifuge Testing of Inertial Platform,TJ760.6
  21. Oversight and semi-supervised canonical correlation analysis and its application,TP181

CLC: > Astronomy,Earth Sciences > Atmospheric science (meteorology ) > Meteorological elements,atmospheric phenomenon > Atmospheric temperature
© 2012 www.DissertationTopic.Net  Mobile