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The Improved Grey Model and Its Applications

Author: YinXunZhen
Tutor: MenKePei
School: Nanjing University of Information Engineering
Course: Applied Mathematics
Keywords: improved grey model BP neural network combination model China economy China population forecast
CLC: N941.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2007
Downloads: 600
Quote: 8
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Abstract


The grey systematic theory is created by Professor Deng Julong, a famousscholar of our country. The theory depends on ’little sample’ of ’some informationknown, some information unknown’and uncertain system of ’poor information’, andextracts useful information from the partial information to operates the correctunderstanding of the law to the system and control effectively. It has already appliedto the society, economy, technology, agriculture and ecology etc.This paper introduce Basic theories of grey system of argumentation ,thethought of grey modeling and modeling course, and recent improvement of greymodel and association model. Also it absorbs the theory made in the grey field inrecent years and uses the research results to show the general picture of these newtrends.On the basis of current grey theory, according to the newest GDP statistics ofthe Tenth Five-Year Plan period of our country, through joining the operator ofbuffering in the primitive statistics pretreatment, weakening the factor of interfering,we set up improved grey model and predict the macro economy of our country from2006 to 2010. The result indicates that the improved grey model has betterpracticability and stability, which made and offered the data to consult for the policyof economic development from 2006 to 2010 at the same time. In order to examinethe grey practicability according to China’s population’s latest data materials, we setup an improved grey model to research the development trend of the population inthe future of our country.It is found that the improved grey model can keep higherprecision in population’s long-term forecast of China in the future.The thought compensating through the error finally is proposed by a kind ofassociation model based on dispersed grey and neural network, and carried on thepositive research to family’s disposable income with the urban residents of during theState’s Tenth Five-Year Plan period of" the Ninth Five-Year Plan ".The result showsthat combination model has the better precision of prediction than the single modeland it also keeps information of the single model as much as possible. So, there willbe deeper development space to combination model to become the key direction ofthe grey theoretical research in recent years.

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CLC: > SCIENCE AND > Journal of Systems Science > Systems,modern systems theory > Gray system theory
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