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Approximation to the Theory of Interest, Capital Markets and Project Feasibility Estimation

Author: YeZuo
Tutor: LiJianBo
School: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Course: Technology Economics and Management
Keywords: uncertainty Approximation to the Theory of Interest the price system of capital markets the logic of project feasibility estimation
CLC: F820;F830.9
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 24
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Abstract


In the real world filled with uncertainty affairs, reliability of income prediction is challenged by instability of economic indices, as well reliability of discount rate calculating by CAPM is challenged by The Lucas Critique. Thus traditional logic of project feasibility estimation which is based on the former two reliabilities becomes unreliable.In this paper, the author traces back the analytic logic of capital markets in Irving Fisher’s masterpiece,<The Theory of Interest>, to criticize the traditional logic of project feasibility estimation; then there is a more reliable method of project feasibility estimation which is based on the description of investment behavior and the price system of capital markets under uncertainty economic circumstance to be put forward tentatively.What should be announced is the new method that is not a negation of traditional methods. Two aims of this paper are to admonish investors who had better not trust the statistical model extremely and to provide an alternative to investors. Although traditional methods are not so reliable, they are important references for investors. Thus the new method is a crucial alternative instead of a negation.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > Finance, banking theory > Financial market
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