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Exploration of new mechanisms and causes of the emerging market economies capital flight

Author: ZhongXiaoYun
Tutor: TangZuoZuo
School: CPC Shanghai Municipal Party
Course: National Economics
Keywords: Capital flight Currency mismatch Granger causality test
CLC: F831.7
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 100
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Since the 1980s, the emerging market economies erupted several times larger currency crisis, and caused huge economic losses, and even cause a worldwide economic turmoil. Studies have shown that the recent years worldwide, after another outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis, the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the Russian financial crisis, the Brazilian financial crisis, a close relationship with the large-scale capital flight. National currency crisis erupted in massive capital flight, the prevalence of more serious currency mismatch, currency mismatch constitutes one of the reasons for the emerging market economies capital flight? If the currency mismatch is capital flight reason, it is also what causes the currency mismatch? solve these problems for the emerging market economies inhibit capital flight, and guard against financial and economic crisis is of great practical significance. Classification combing first scholars about the causes of capital flight, found that the existing research is mainly attributed to capital flight to the internal factors of the emerging market economies, and consider only the impact of the expected depreciation of the exchange rate on capital flight, ignored the current international monetary system and exchange rate appreciation is expected to impact on capital flight. Secondly, the causes and effects of this article by currency mismatch elaborated currency mismatch theory and the proposed currency mismatch is the inevitable result of the emerging market economy countries in the current international monetary system. Again, this paper analyzes the three effects - balance sheet effects and portfolio effects and competitive effects of currency mismatch of capital flight. The results showed that the situation facing massive debt currency mismatch, currency mismatch promote capital flight through balance sheet effects and portfolio effects, inhibition of capital flight and by the effects of competition; in the face of large-scale debt currency mismatch under the currency mismatch through balance sheet effects, the portfolio effect and the effects of competition to promote capital flight. To empirically test the currency wrong pairing the impact of capital flight, Granger causality test method examined the case of China, the results show that China's currency mismatch significant cause capital flight. Finally, for reasons of currency mismatch, the emerging market economies to temporary and permanent strategy for inhibition of capital flight.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > World of finance, banking > International capital flows
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