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The Research on the Monetary Policy Effect to Stock Market

Author: YangFan
Tutor: ChenYongSheng
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Monetary policy Interest rate Money supply Stock market
CLC: F832.51;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 223
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In monetary policy , the main objective of the central bank at home and abroad is usually price stability , full employment , economic growth and balance of payments , the ultimate goal of monetary policy excluding asset price index . The same time, the effect of monetary policy on the stock market , the academic community has not yet reached a consensus , the money supply and stock index , interest rate and stock index , there is a big differences . Therefore, the money supply , interest rate regulation of the feasibility and accuracy of the stock market or predict the stock market will be restricted . Study the impact of money supply on the index problem , get rid of the direct money supply , stock index for the study of traditional methods , the introduction of the money supply increment ( △ M1 ) , the incremental rate of change of the money supply ( D △ M1 ) , the Shanghai Composite Index rate of change ( DS ) for target observation , empirical analysis , estimates △ M1 and S , DM1 and DS of the correlation coefficient , the establishment of DM1 as the independent variable on the DS regression equation . Studies have shown that the incremental change in the direction of the money supply and stock index Change direction of convergence has a strong positive correlation . When the money supply increment is zero , the stock index was negative changes . The impact of interest rate intermediate target on the stock , the introduction of the concept of cycle time is divided into the rate hike cycle rate cut cycle , changes in interest rates , stock index movements observed in the corresponding period . The analysis shows that the negative correlation of the traditional theory of interest rates and stock market performance in China is not obvious , China 's stock index is not sensitive to changes in interest rates , China has not yet formed the mechanism by adjusting the level of interest rates affect the stock price index , which means stage of China's central bank does not yet have the ability to regulate the stock market by adjusting the level of interest rates . According to the analysis conclusion , this paper gives a five-point policy recommendations : the central bank monetary policy should focus on stock market forecast is mainly based on ; M1 incremental - regulate the stock market ; accelerate the process of marketization of interest rates , interest rate increases leverage ; strengthen the currency market the interaction of the capital markets ; improve the efficiency of the stock market monetary policy transmission .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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