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The Study on the Assessment of Statutory Claim Reserve of China’s Property Insurance

Author: WangMingGao
Tutor: ChenTao
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Insurance
Keywords: Loss reserve Incurred and reported claims reserve Incurred but not reported claims reserve Progress factor Chain Ladder Deterministic model Traffic triangle Seasonal proportion Act of
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 80
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Abstract


With the financial and insurance market turmoil, how to maintain the stability of the insurance company is an important issue. Especially rapid development of China's insurance industry in recent years, we should be soberly aware that China's insurance industry is also facing increasing risks. Order to be able to correctly understand the operational risks of the insurance company and its profitability, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of its assets and liabilities, and the insurance company liabilities that responsibility reserve with great uncertainty, need to be actuarial valuation. The late start and our insurance actuarial studies, especially the study of non-life insurance actuarial theory lag, resulting in the property and casualty insurance companies have a great deal of flexibility in product pricing and reserve assessment. Resulting in property insurance companies in the exhibition industry price competition is fierce, the scheduled rate sheet reference is not meaningful; liability reserve assessment for a long time are not strictly rational rules until the end of 2004, which was enacted in actuarial method of non-life insurance business responsibility reserves assess. The liability reserve liabilities of the insurance company correct reasonable assessment of the reserve is of great significance for the sound operation of the insurance company. Since the vast majority of non-life insurance policies for a period of one-year assessment of the premium reserve method is relatively clear, such as 1/24 of Law 1/365 method; the assessment pending Peian in terms of statistical confirmation or actuarial methods are a lot of subjectivity and uncertainty, this thesis analyzes the claim reserves in the property insurance company liability reserve assessment using the end of 2004, issued by the \) \For comprehensiveness and authenticity of the analysis, the paper quoted two consecutive four-year analysis of claims data representative insurance commercial property insurance and employer's liability insurance, including employer liability insurance data 1801, the enterprise property insurance data , 1657; use of the loss reserve assessment methods specified in the \In reported claims reserve assessment process, respectively-by-case estimation method, comparative analysis and the average method; chain ladder method claims case law with a comparative analysis of IBNR claims reserve assessment process, respectively. , which can be a better understanding of the choice of assessment methods. In this thesis, the content and ideas are as follows: the introduction first discusses the background and significance of the topic, and then briefly the main content of this paper and research ideas, the last of the research literature. The first part of the collation and analysis of empirical data flow analysis to assess the loss reserve on actual claims data referenced found the 2004 Peian data registration is not standardized, claims a longer delay time, after a few The annual registration of claims data increasingly timely, but the amount of Peian Gusun overall error is larger. Found through analysis of the actual data, and employer liability insurance Peian and did not show a long tail characteristics imagine annually within each month Peian number of relatively uniform, but each year Peian number of changes in the larger, single Peian a tendency to increase the amount of compensation; the amount of Gusun of corporate property insurance Peian not be optimistic obvious seasonal fluctuations its Peian occur. Analysis of the reasons for the employer liability insurance business by the rules and regulations of the influence, accident insurance, such as property insurance company in 2003 to carry out the business of the employer's liability insurance business impact of large Injury Insurance Regulations 2004 have some impact, another implementation of the High Court in May 2004, judicial interpretation of \affected by natural climatic factors, the selected data region in June, July and August for the flood season, which occurred in the period Peian more exhibit the phenomenon of seasonal fluctuations. The second part of reported claims reserve estimates reported reparations ready reserve valuation process, the first two types of insurance were estimated using a case-by-case method of analysis, then the average law analysis. Processing on the substantial Peian employer liability insurance and commercial property insurance individual year, according to its cause, so that the results of the assessment more reasonable. Two evaluation methods were used for two types of insurance, found that the average assessment of the law is greater than the results of a case-by-case estimation method, two evaluation methods have a certain degree of subjectivity, a case-by-case estimates of subjectivity embodied in claims personnel on a the insurance accident Gusun has occurred, the average law reflects the and documented both reparations choice. Insurance companies Gusun work not paid much attention to it as a general claims process, can be seen from the statistics lower Gusun data reliability, accuracy order to strengthen Gusun work, insurance companies need to further improve the claims work. Reparations choice in the case of the average method, the main use of statistical methods have been processed in the past Peian analysis to predict changes in future claims of the accident of the case are reparations from the two types of insurance claims data vary widely this case are reparations select subjectivity. To some extent is difficult to compare the pros and cons of the two methods, if conditions allow case-by-case basis, as far as possible the estimation method and average method combination, although the results differ, by evaluating the results compare roughly estimated reported loss reserve estimates range range . The third part is the estimate of IBNR claim reserves, first strike a total loss reserve for IBNR reserve assessment of reported claims reserve and then claim reserves minus that obtained IBNR reserve. Chain ladder method in the evaluation process in the first of two types of insurance were analyzed, and then the case are claims law analysis. Assess the chain ladder method, the choice of two advanced six months and one year period, found that the one-year progress factor is relatively stable, the final results of the assessment is less than half a year of assessment results. Progress in a period of a year, each issue observed data relative increase, so the statistical results of better stability, but claims progress is not obvious changes. Look through the two insurance Peian processing time, generally three years on closing for convenient and reasonable analysis, analysis of claims traffic triangle, advanced accident the optional half year period. In the table on the progress of the two types of insurance claims and Peian number factor analysis found that the progress factor two periods of volatility in the first half of 2005 and the first half of 2007, progress in basic factor Table 6-12 progress factor greater than 2, Description Pei treatment within a year, can be seen on the progress of the first few of the more important factor. The progress factor selected reference mean factor of progress, trends and forecast period Chuxian Peian processing, undeniable progress factor selected subjective factors. To assess the commercial property insurance, due to seasonal fluctuations its Peian occurred, using the traditional method of claim reserves estimation error may be larger, but the proportion method of time series theory season can be a good solution to this problem, the The method is simple and practical, especially suitable for the estimates of the report data. Finally, each insurance reported compensation reserve two estimates, the total loss reserve three estimates IBNR reserve by the claims reserve less reported claims reserves come. Reported claims reserves and claims reserves of gold each in several different results can be obtained IBNR reserves estimated interval. Can be seen from the final results, a new implementation of the \The last part of the summary of the assessment and outlook for claim reserves, according to some of the problems found in the evaluation process of the loss reserve, on how to improve the quality of the data and the accuracy of the Gusun some implementation of the pilot scheme \The internal management put forward higher requirements, so that insurance companies need to further improve the quality of the data. In addition, the development and changes of the terms of the insurance contract analysis and the insurance terms has a direct impact on the timeliness and assess the accuracy of the claims reserve Peian processing, such as incidents of claims made policy steering system can not assess the IBNR reserve; proposed no-fault plan, a certain degree of loss can be directly handled by the insurance company, in order to avoid the tedious proceedings to accelerate Peian processing speed. Finally, a summary of the property and casualty insurance company claims reserve assessment methods and their development prospects. Comprehensive analysis of the contents of this thesis, the paper gives the following conclusions: first through the analysis of empirical data, we can see our the property insurance Peian claims the delay, and assess the actual process of claim reserves. The second pair of actual claims data abnormal data classification and treatment advice is given according to its causes. Third for enterprise the property insurance Peian occurred seasonal volatility, proposed in this paper deal with proportion method using time series of the season, this is a simple and practical method. Fourth found two the insurance indemnity traffic triangle in fluctuations may be caused by internal management, the paper gives recommendations to improve the data management. In addition, the presence of the following deficiencies: the first Peian data select only a region, not representative of the overall situation of our country; less the selected amount of data, statistical stability is relatively low in loss reserve assessment process, progress factor case reparations choice difficult, this reserve estimates subjectivity; third due the report data Gusun amount of quality is not high, the impact of the choice of assessment methods and claim reserves estimated that the accuracy of the results.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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