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RMB real effective exchange rate changes on import and export trade impact analysis

Author: SongZuo
Tutor: WangXun
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Western Economics
Keywords: Trade surplus Real effective exchange rate Trade structure
CLC: F752
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 421
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Exchange rate also known as \is seen as a means of international competition and expansion. In general, the rise in the nominal exchange rate (ie the currency devaluation) can serve the purpose of expanding foreign sales; decline in the nominal exchange rate (ie, the currency appreciation) help to stimulate the country's imports. Along with the deepening of economic globalization, foreign trade continued stable and rapid development of a country's economic growth is increasingly becoming an important guarantee. Since reform and opening, China's economy has made rapid development. In recent years, China's high double surplus situation remains high, from 2005 July 21 Nisshin since the implementation of a mechanism of RMB exchange rate reform forced both internal and external pressures have continued appreciated nearly 20%, but this does not change our persistent high trade surplus situation, at the same time, China's foreign exchange reserves are rapidly accumulating. International economic exchanges become more diversified, making the bilateral exchange rate has been difficult to accurately describe the external value of a currency fluctuations, and as a national and major trading partners and competitor countries a weighted average of bilateral exchange rate, the effective exchange rate to more accurately reflect the a country's currency and the country's overall external value of the currency in international trade between overall competitiveness. Weighted effective exchange rate effect on the trade balance, as many scholars of the object. In this paper from the actual situation faced renminbi, using empirical analysis methods, the integrated use of international trade, statistics, econometric theory, around RMB real effective exchange rate of China's foreign trade balance with the amount of import and export commodities a study of the trade structure. Article first chapter first summarizes the relevant research literature in the field, and then start from the most basic theoretical introduction, the following analysis has laid a theoretical foundation; second chapter analyzes the first few main reasons to promote appreciation of the renminbi, and then describes the 1989 to 2008 these 20 years, the nominal exchange rate of the renminbi several stages of change and analyze the reasons, and finally introduces the concept of trade structure and analysis of China's past and current import and export commodity structure; To make research more persuasive, In the third chapter, we select specific statistics over the years, the use of empirical research in the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test to explain the real effective exchange rate fluctuations on the impact of China's foreign trade; Chapter analysis of the current situation facing the Renminbi, RMB appreciation on China pointed out is both opportunities and challenges; In the last article we optimize the industrial structure, expanding domestic demand, strengthen the exchange rate risk management, regulatory cross-border capital flows, improve foreign exchange construction and other aspects of the market in response to the reasonableness of appreciation presented policy recommendations. From the third part of empirical research results can be seen: through imports, exports and the real effective exchange rate of the natural logarithm difference, we know that after the results of the analysis of these three series are stationary sequence, it can be Subsequent analysis; through cointegration we know, China's imports amount and the real effective exchange rate between the RMB and the export value of China's real effective exchange rate between both exists cointegration; Finally, Granger causality test we have out, the RMB real effective exchange rate is the amount of import and export Granger cause changes in the RMB real effective exchange rate of China's import and export trade volume will change in a corresponding impact.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade
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