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Study of China’s Monetary Policy Stability

Author: ChangHongJun
Tutor: ZengZhiYuan
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Western Economics
Keywords: The stability of monetary policy Monetary policy trajectory The rate of change of the monetary conditions index
CLC: F822.0
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 140
Quote: 0
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Abstract


This paper studies the problem of stability of monetary policy. From the macro-economy, the stability of the monetary policy determines whether the central bank can create a stable monetary environment for economic operation. From a theoretical point of view, the stability of monetary policy will produce significant disturbance of other macroeconomic variables. Looking at the practice of China's monetary policy, monetary policy changes in trend is sometimes crunch sometimes expansion. Various monetary policy tools frequently used and there have been dramatic changes in directional, China's monetary policy does not exist a stationary time series. In this paper, the method of qualitative analysis and empirical analysis of the stability of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of China tentative discussion. The paper first analyzes the monetary policy stability connotation. By Irving Fisher and Milton Friedman's theory of monetary policy analysis and the Keynesian \stability and policy stability and stability policy distinction. Qualitative analysis and empirical test of the stability of China's monetary policy in accordance with the relevant public data. Qualitative analysis, from the perspective of overall changes in the orientation of monetary policy and the central bank's monetary policy tools, the use of two of China's monetary policy is the lack of stability. In quantitative analysis and empirical analysis, carried out at three levels. One of China's monetary conditions index estimates and inspection, the actual results of the economic operation analysis, cointegration test and Granger causality test between policy stability and economic stability. Based on the results of these tests, I have come to a conclusion: China's monetary policy is the lack of stability, and the result of this unstable monetary policy to stabilize the economy is not ideal, and even can be said that China's currency policy instability is caused by price volatility a major factor. Therefore, the stability of the monetary policy of the central bank to raise policy orientation should be a wise choice for central bank decisions. I made a few suggestions: first, turned to the \the development of monetary policy indicator.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Principle of policy and its elaborate
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