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An Empirical Test and Its a Applicability of Taylor Rule in China

Author: XieShaoHua
Tutor: ZengZhiYuan
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Western Economics
Keywords: Taylor rule Monetary policy Interest rate Cointegration test
CLC: F822.0
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 149
Quote: 0
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Abstract


After 90 years of the 20th century, the credibility of monetary policy rules has been widely recognized, at the same time the emerging rules of the tendency of the monetary policy of the monetary authorities. Our current implementation of discretionary monetary policy, monetary policy advantages is its ability to flexibly implement monetary policy according to the recent economic situation. However, due to the price and wage rigidity, the poor conduction of monetary policy, will cause external delays of monetary policy, leading to economic instability. From the trend of China's economic and financial development, the rule-based monetary policy will become the choice of monetary policy in China. Taylor rule is to come to the Taylor sum up the experience of the United States on the basis of the monetary policy rule has been successfully practiced in Western countries for decades. China can learn from the experience of developed countries in the West, to seek suitable for our country's form of Taylor rule, effective regulation of China's economic. The first part of this article a brief review and discussion of the Taylor rule, introduced the Taylor rule policy implications, outlined the proposed development of the Taylor rule. The second part of the applicability review of the Taylor rule in China. The analysis shows that the Taylor rule applies premise Taylor rule has its limitations in practice, but with the deepening of China's financial reform and the constant improvement of the financial markets, the Taylor rule of monetary policy formulation and implementation as well as monitoring the growing guiding role. The third part is the applicability test of the Taylor rule in China. First describes the data selection and processing of the variable, and then derive the Taylor rule according to the New Keynesian model and the capital asset pricing model, last used cointegration meet the Taylor rule to test whether the long-term trend of the domestic interbank offered rate, while the estimated out the specific form of the Taylor rule in China. The last part of the brief of the Taylor rule in China practice areas for improvement. Of the current interest rate is no market and financial market was underdeveloped, the market system is not perfect, should proceed according to the real situation of our country to find a suitable path of China's financial reform. The article pointed out that, with the acceleration of the process of the Chinese market, the Taylor rule is bound to become the choice of China's monetary policy rules. The innovation of this paper is that the system are summarized in the extended form of the Taylor rule, the Taylor rule, since the introduction of domestic and foreign research, described the applicability premise of the Taylor rule in China. Further amended on the basis of the research of others, the Taylor rule model in China, and a summary of the Taylor rule, there may be problems in the practical application of China, proposed the corresponding countermeasures.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Principle of policy and its elaborate
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