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The Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Export Prices

Author: XuLei
Tutor: XiangHouJun
School: Zhejiang University of Finance
Course: Industrial Economics
Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-through Pricing to Market Panal Cointergation Panel Error Correction
CLC: F726;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 362
Quote: 0
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Abstract


After the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate has been in appreciation state. According to the related economic theories, exchange rate appreciation will play a regulatory role in international trade. However, in fact, China’s international trade surplus does not reduce. Some scholars pointed out that the exchange rate changes can adjust to the international trade whether or not, depends on the exchange rate changes change the relative price of import and export commodities firstiy, if the relative price doesn’t change, the adjustment will be limited. Based on this, the paper first use RMB nominal effective exchange rate to examine how the RMB exchange rate’change influence the export prices from industry level? Are there the same impact For different industries? If different, are there releatived to the enterprise’s pricing to market power?Further, considering the bilateral exchange rate against the dollar is China’s international trade major currencies. So, how much the yuan against the dollar exchange rate’changes pass-through to the exports’price? Are there have industry difference? Are the the conclusion consistent with the studythat had just been done?For those, this paper use panel data model to have a deep reserch based on the industrial and pricing to market perspective. Using panel cointegration and panel error correction model, the empirical results show that:Firstly, the exchange rate’s change have a long-term impact on the most of the industries’export commodity’s prices,but do not have immediate impact. Among them, there are nine industries’s export price’s short-term changes influenced by long-term, but in the adjustment of the speed are significant different between industries.The fastest is agricultural products (NC) and information (XX), transportation equipment (JT), minerals (KC), household appliances (JD), universal equipment (TS), medicine (YY), culture, education, sports (WJ) adjustment of speed, adjust the slowest almost is plastic rubber (SX).Secondly, from the overall level, exchange rate pass-through is low and have industries differences. Most of the industries exporters are varies with exchange rate appreciation and reduce the cost of the bonus, average size is 0.72. But the industry difference of different industry is significant, instrument (YB), information (XX), culture, education, sports (WJ), oil chemical industry (SH), transportation equipment (JY), home appliance (JD), textile (FZ)’s exchange rate pass-through are relatively high, average level is 0.54 (absolute value); Plastic rubber (SX), food and beverage alcohol and tobacco (SY), wood (MZ)’s exchange rate pass-through are relatively low, average size is 0.15 (absolute value), among them, food and beverage alcohol and tobacco (SY)’s exchange rate pass through is especially low,only 0.009 (absolute value), that means that exporters will completely absorp the cost caused by change of exchange rate.Thirdly, the exchange rate pass through of different industrial do not present a similarity characteristics by product type (labor-intensive products, capital and technology-intensive products, food and resource-intensive products, etc.). For example, textile (FZ) and clothing shoes and hats (FX) belong to the labor-intensive products, butthey showed a greater difference between exchange rate pass-through. So do the instrument (YB) and special equipment (ZY).Lastly, the yuan against dollar’s appreciation have given industries great impact, and has significant lags’influences . Although a few of industries (chemical products (HX), minerals (KC) and petroleum chemical industry (SH)) can pass through the exchange rate’s appreciation, For most do not pass through successfully. This largely reflects our export products in the international market does not have stronger international competitiveness characteristics.At the same time, through the empirical research during the yuan against the dollar exchange rate fast appreciation stage, we found at the stage exchange rate have a great influence to the export’s price, compared to the whole sample period. Even so, most of the industries are not pass through more.Based on the above research conclusions, the paper give from four aspects of relevant suggestion ahout the yuan appreciation strategy, export trade strategy, industrial escalation strategy abd currency choice.

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