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Research on Robust Risk Programming Methods for Virtual Enterprise

Author: HuoYanLi
Tutor: HuangMinï¼›XuChunZuo
School: Northeastern University
Course: Systems Engineering
Keywords: Dynamic Alliance Risk planning Uncertainty Robust Optimization ILOG
CLC: F273.7
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 29
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Dynamic Alliance is a complex open business model. Virtual Enterprise is to seize an opportunity and composition, it can more quickly adapt to market changes than conventional (non-Union) to win in the fierce competition in the market. However, the attendant risks much greater than the risks faced by the general business. Virtual Enterprise risk management issues involved are many factors. Therefore, from the point of view of the system set out to consider the issue, a comprehensive analysis of a variety of risk factors. Dynamic alliance of their own characteristics, to establish an effective risk assessment system of dynamic alliance enterprises is particularly important. And scholars for the risk management of dynamic alliance is often the cost of risk control measures as determined value (point value) to consider, very few people study risk control measures cost uncertainty. Practical problems, with the time and conditions change, the cost of risk control measures to a large extent will change, that is necessary to consider the cost of the uncertainty of the risk control measures in risk planning. Meanwhile, in the processing of uncertainty problem, the traditional method by averaging to eliminate the impact of uncertainty. Lack of robustness of this method, that is, when the parameters fluctuate, to ensure the feasibility of the feasible solutions obtained probability is very low, or even no longer feasible. Therefore, this paper introduces a new approach - Robust Optimization (Robust Optimization) method to solve the parameter uncertainty impact the feasibility of solutions to the problem, this method when the parameter fluctuates, but also provide a probability for the feasibility of solutions such assurances as the resulting program with a high degree of feasibility. In this paper, the dynamic characteristics of the Union and the ambiguity of the risk to determine the effective evaluation methods - fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and HFMFs method. Uncertainties and to eliminating the impact of this uncertainty on risk planning, the introduction of a robust optimization method, robust risk planning model for the three types of risk control mechanisms for the cost of risk control measures, the Virtual Enterprise Single measures robust risk planning model; Virtual Enterprise multi-measures single robust risk planning model and Virtual Enterprise multi-measures and more robust risk planning model. Application of ILOG optimization software to solve it. Finally, an example analysis in the elimination of uncertainty to the decision-making affect the validity of the method is verified.

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