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Study about the Prediction of Cultivatedareas of Gansu Province Based on the Grain Security

Author: ZhengYongJun
Tutor: SunPengJu；LiuXueLu
School: Gansu Agricultural University
Course: Management of land resources
Keywords: grain safety arable land retaining quantity Gansu province
CLC: F326.11;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 83
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Abstract

The cultivated land has important function of grain production,It plays a very important role to ensure the national grains safety, Besides, it is also the foundation to make sure the social stability, ecological and economic security.At present, The relationship between the grain security and the cultivated land in Gansu province still faces severe challenges. With the further development of our social economy、and the accelerating of the urbanization process、and the needs of the ecological environment construction and the agricultural structure adjustment during the planning period, Because of that, the cultivated land area will inevitably have a further decrease. While the cultivated land resources in Gansu province facing the difficulties of development and high cost. The rapid growth of the population has increased demand for the supplies of grains.This article takes the Gansu province as an example ,carries out analysis on preserved arable land quantity and makes a prediction of it from grains security aspect.On the basis of discuss the cultivated land externality,and from analyze the theory of the land resource scarcity、the coordination theory、the ecosystem balance theory、the input-output theory and the sustainable development theory to study the cultivated land resource utilization,In this foundation,we make judgment on the change trend of cultivated land of Gansu province from 2010 to 2020. and the paper makes use of mathematical models to separately forecast population、the total demand for grain、the output of the grain crop acreaga、duplicate index and the scale of the grain crops acreage accounting for the total sown of Gansu province,At the above all,Considered the self-sufficiency rate of grain.Meanwhile, This article also considers various possibilities of arable land increase and decrease during planned period combining the national economic development and the requirement of every land use department,the least cultivated areas of 2010 and 2020 are forecasted using the forecasted model,the predictive calues are analyzed about the rationality and a reasonable ,and measures and proposals are put forward based on the grain security strategies under the cultivated land protection.To provide the reference for realize sustainable development of agriculture、grains security and the revision of the general land use planning,and further afford Gansu province the prerequisite to realizes the sustainable development of society and economy basied on the scientific concept of development.In this paper,basied on the certain rate of the grain self-sufficiency and the level of consumption,the forecast of the least cultivated area is the lowest area of the cultivated land that is demanded according as its own regional comprehensive productivity of the cultivated land reflected by the unit grain yield.That is,in the grain self-sufficiency rate of 90% and 95% and Preserve the life level of food and clothing that the per capita share of grain above 300 kg, the least cultivated areas that are forecasted are separately 453.16 million hectares and 431.42 million in the year of 2010 and 2020 in Gansu province. in this range,The cultivated land can achieve comparatively stable food security and could satisfy the standard living leve of food and clothing that the per capita share of grain A minimum of 300 kg. In the future for a long time,the food production of Gansu province will increase the land consolidation,especially of the basic farmland. Retrofit the middle-and-low-yielding fields and increase the unit grain yield is a significant channel to solve the problem of the grain production and ensure the nationa food security.

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