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An Analysis on China’s Grain Supply and Demand Comprehensive Balance

Author: HuangYuHui
Tutor: WangWeiGuo
School: Dongbei University of Finance
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Food supply and demand Combination Forecasting Method Fractile regression model Food security
CLC: F326.11
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 678
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Abstract


Food is a strategic material of the national economy, basic public goods and essential commodities of all members of society, involving tens of thousands of households, but also has economic, social, cultural, ecological and other functions. Significant changes in food production and consumption is likely to lead to large fluctuations, will bring a chain reaction. China has a large agricultural reserve resources, with the rapid economic development and the increase of population in the future for a long period of time, China's grain supply will be in a tight balance of the state. In recent years, the tight grain supply and demand relationship at home and abroad, the overall food prices continued to rise, has aroused great concern. Due to the stagnation of the world's total grain output and trade, the world food supply is extremely uneven, developing countries may face more pressing issue of food security. In particular, after the completion of the China-ASEAN free trade zone, the problem of food security more closely with the international agricultural market linked, as a ready to face uncertainty, at any time need to be determined and adjusted in the important areas of coping strategies. The background of the times of economic transition and the international environment of the AFTA food security issues to a more important position, which is the basic starting point of this thesis. The papers include Introduction, including a total of six chapters Review - supply and demand forecast - factor analysis - policy recommendations \Introduction section describes the background, the significance of the thesis and research ideas; Chapter II based on the combination forecasting method predicts China's grain production in 2030; international market in the third chapter analyzes the income elasticity of demand of China's grain; fourth chapter discusses under open conditions food trade on China's grain production and demand balance. The fifth chapter is the conclusion, to build food macro-control short-term and long-term goals based on the protection of China's grain supply and demand balance and food security. Thesis research work are as follows: First, the paper uses the econometric model and the gray system different levels of domestic support China's grain output forecast. Try to combination forecasting method is applied to the prediction of our future food production. By giving reasonable weight, the weighted combination of the time series model and gray system. Time series model, gray forecasting model and fitting combination forecasting method to estimate China's grain output in 2006-2008, and analyzes the accuracy of the fit of the three. The results show that a single model and combined model with high prediction accuracy. But the difference between the analytical model, due to the combination model takes into account many factors, to predict the risk of failure, which combined forecasting model to predict more reasonable. And the method further predicted China's grain production in 2010 and 2030. On the basis of this analysis, the paper further consider the impact of climate change on China's grain output. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)) prepared by the SRES A2 (medium - high) and B2 (-) greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SRES), different levels of future greenhouse gas emission scenarios, 2020, 2050 and 2080, each time food supply and demand scenario, combined with the future development of the socio-economic analysis of the impact of climate change on food supply and demand, the impact of different levels of climate change on future food supply. Judging from the impact of climate change on crop growth, the following four aspects. Temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration. The results showed that the response to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified a range of SRES (emissions scenarios report) emission scenarios, to maintain the current proportion of planted acreage in the B2 scenario of climate change on China's food security problems will not pose a threat to the A2 scenario, climate change will cause the sustainable development of China's food security threat. Second, the paper uses the income elasticity analysis of China's grain demand. In many cases, the Engel curve used to measure the demand for food and income level. Double logarithmic model is widely used, it is because the ability of the model form. Forecast demand for food is divided into urban and rural areas, this is because the structure of urban and rural food needs are very different. Facing the future of urban population growth, different income groups the level of consumption gap, more directly reflects the residents of different consumer demand for food. Therefore, the demand for consumption structure by income levels in urban and rural fifth grade are discussed. The median regression method to estimate urban income elasticity of demand coefficient, the income elasticity of demand in rural areas using the quantile regression method, and in recent years, China's per capita grain demand reproduction. On the basis of a detailed analysis of China's grain supply and demand of various factors, China's food production and food per capita amount of time series data 1980-2008, calculated China's grain supply and demand gap in 2010 and 2030. Third, the international market for China's grain supply and demand in an open conditions. Agricultural country like China, food supply and demand changes in the world market will be a significant impact. Like other Asian countries, the performance of China's food security policy of food self-sufficiency, and consistency in the food markets and food trade. Due to historical reasons and the imperfections of the existing policy, China's grain circulation, there are still many problems to be solved, such as: food price formation mechanism unreasonable government grain reserves management mechanism is not flexible, the reform of state-owned grain enterprises lag. The main factors determining the comparative advantage resource endowment conditions and configuration status. Industry has a comparative advantage than easy to form and maintain a competitive advantage, the lack of comparative advantage industries is more difficult to develop and maintain a competitive advantage. Therefore, detailed calculations of the comparative advantage of the recent years, China's grain export varieties, India and ASEAN countries with large agricultural country were compared. The data show that China's grain under the premise of existing comparative advantages, in order to further development, we must continue to enhance its international competitive advantage. Thesis GARCH model empirical analysis of China's grain market operation mechanism, in-depth study of the features and the impact of the domestic food market supply and demand balance and price volatility. Finally, the paper by principal component analysis and cluster analysis to evaluate the influencing factors of China's food security. The results showed that the level of scientific and technological progress with higher load factor, the greatest influence on food security, followed by the demand factor, material input factors, policy factors and climatic and environmental factors. Fourth, on the basis of the above theoretical analysis, the paper proposes policy recommendations to ensure food security. China's food security, improve fluctuations. The threat to our food security is not a single factor in the field of production, consumption, distribution, trade and other fields are likely to cause food safety risks. , Food policy should not be the single nature of the package, with a combination of the nature of policy. Increase food production, investment, and establish and improve food production support system. To ensure food security, a profound understanding of the impact of food production and supply and demand of natural, social and policy, human factors and its changes. On this basis, adhere to self-sufficiency-based, supplemented by imports, the combination of macroeconomic regulation and market regulation, relying on scientific and technological progress, for the domestic and international markets and two resources, and constantly improve the benefits of agricultural policies and increase farmers' income and other principles.

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CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > China 's agricultural economy > Agricultural sector economy > Farming > Food crops
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