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Research on Evaluation Models of Ecological Hazard of New Chemicals

Author: YangXueMei
Tutor: LiShuQin
School: Northwest University of Science and Technology
Course: Applied Computer Technology
Keywords: new chemicals ecological hazard evaluation Football combination evaluation PCA M-SVMs PBT/vPvB assessment
CLC: X171.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 57
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Abstract


In order to prevent new chemical substances to cause harm to humans and theenvironment, it is need to evaluate the ecological hazards of the chemicals. By analyzingresearch status of domestic and foreign, the sorting model and classification model ofecological hazard of chemicals are studied and constructed, and assessment of the PBT/vPvBsubstances are studied. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) By analyzing the domain knowledge of ecological hazards of the chemicals, the setof evaluation indexes, including fish toxicity, alga toxicity, daphnia toxicity, biodegradability,bioconcentration, distributivity and adsorbability which are used in the sorting andclassification model of ecological hazards of chemicals is built.(2) Construction of sorting model of ecological hazard of chemicals based on Footballcombination evaluation method. In view of the faults of simplex evaluation method forsorting of ecological hazards of the chemicals. Firstly,61environmental priority pollutantsare put as evaluation objects, and factor analysis, Copeland and Topsis based on entropymethods are used to evaluate evaluation objects respectively. Then the Football combinationevaluation method is first used in sorting of ecological hazards of the chemicals to constructsorting model, and re-evaluate the ecological hazard of evaluation objects. Finally, accordingto the12persistent organic pollutants listed by United Nations Environment Programme andthe evaluation results of61environmental priority pollutants published by Japan’s Ministry ofthe Environment, the combination evaluation results of Football are verified. Experimentalresults show that the combination evaluation results of Football are consistent with theevaluation results which published by United Nations Environment Programme and Japan’sMinistry of the Environment.(3) Construction of classification model of ecological hazard of chemicals.In view of thefaults of existing classification model of ecological hazard of chemicals. Firstly,61environmental priority pollutants are put as evaluation objects, and principal componentanalysis(PCA) is applied to analyze the evaluation indexes of evaluation objects to acquire thenumber and scores of principal components which can affect the ecological hazards ofchemicals. Then mahalanobis distance discrimination and multi-class support vectormachine(M-SVMs) methods are used to constructed the classification model respectively, in model training and prediction, the principal component scores are put as model input, and theecological hazard category are put as model output. Finally, the10-fold cross validation isused to verify the effectiveness of the two classification models. Experimental results showthat the mean classification accuracy of the M-SVMs model is higher than the mahalanobisdistance discrimination model, its mean classification accuracy is89.24%, and the predictionresults of10new chemicals are consistent with the practice.(4) Study on assessment of the PBT/vPvB substances. Under the guidance of experts inthe field, the evaluation indexes and evaluation criteria which are suitable to use in PBT/vPvBassessment of China are selected, and the assessment process of PBT/vPvB are designed andimplemented. Finally,12chemicals are assessed. Experimental results show that theassessment results in this paper are consistent with the European Union announcedassessment results of the12chemicals.

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CLC: > Environmental science, safety science > The basic theory for the Environment and Science > Environmental Biology > Ecosystems and pollution ecology > Pollution Ecology
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