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Research on city bike transfer mechanism and choice behavior based on activity chain

Author: HeWeiNing
Tutor: HeBaoHong
School: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Course: Vehicle Operation Engineering
Keywords: bicycle activity chain transfer mechanism effect factor Nested model
CLC: U491
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 198
Quote: 0
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Abstract

The number of bicycle in China is the largest in the world, and bicycle in China urban traffic occupies an important position in a long term. However, with the economic growth, the level of motorization raised, and the related policy influenced, the bicycle gradually declined in the position of parts of the city, it made bike travel environment bad, and the development of the bicycle transport hindered. At the same time, the quantity of car retains increasing ceaselessly, the urban traffic congestion is more and more serious, rail traffic rapidly development, the share rate of public traffic increased, and the urban traffic structure optimized, whose calling is more and more intense, it is inevitable to study the bike changing to the public traffic, especially bicycle transferring into orbit transportation. Based on this, this paper integrates the national Natural Science Foundation "urban bicycle traffic transfer mechanism and the transfer station optimization method(No.51068013)", choosing transferring behavior of city bike as the research object by way of activity, and researching the activities chain of the bicycle transfer mechanism and the choice behavior.This paper was firstly on based of the analysis of advantages and disadvantages as well as the complementary of cycling and public transport, further discussed the development of bicycle transferring into public transportation necessity and the feasibility. Secondly, taking "Kunming residents trip survey" and "Kunming bicycle travel preference survey" as the basic data, the bicycle characteristics and bicycle activities chain characteristic was detailed analysis in the aspects of the individual attributes, attributes of family, travel attribute and preference attributes; thirdly, the database would based on the activity chain of transferring, and no transferring to contrast their characteristic differences, the critical distance of bike transferring into public traffic was determined from the angle of the travel distance, and the basis for dividing the bicycle traffic advantage area, competition area and inferior area, the three regional bicycle change to public traffic transferring mechanism was analyzed from the angle of the travel time, to have each trip chain transfer condition and transfer potential in the different transfer modes. Finally, on the basis of the above data processing and transfer mechanism analysis, it is established nested Logit model, and took a branch of the bottom of the model as an example, and the model was calibration, inspection and variable analysis.Through the above analysis, the conclusion was came to, the bike activity chain appeared the travel characteristics of a multi purposes; the commute travel is the major of the travel purpose; activity chain transfer feasibility is low; activity chain spatial distribution mainly concentrates in the jobs of dense core area and center area; it was the most of the travel time in30min (including electric vehicles) following in the short-distance travel; within24hours a day there was a trip, and it formed an early peak and a late peak. In addition to the space distribution and the time consumption characteristics, Kunming City Bicycle commuter travel, multi purposes activity chain and low conversion and car, which showed a high degree of consistency, further it can be seen this, which Kunming bicycle way chain and car mode chain in local space had stronger competition relationship; bike competitive region and the inferior region choice of transfer probability is greater than the bicycle traffic advantage regions within the transfer probability. By only considering the travel time, choice of metro transfer probability is greater than the probability of transfer bus. From the test result of the model it could be seen, after splitting one continuous variable and a variable has several category into several variables, all characteristics of individual, family, region and activity have variables influence the choice of way of traffic, among them, the motor or non-motor the travelers own and the time that the travelers spend in the trip. After analysing the sensitivity of model, obtaining the conclusions that the average income of family is a sensitive factor of the choice of way of car chain, the time travelers spend in trip seldom influences the choice of way of car chain, but influencing the choice of way of walk chain, public traffic chain and bicycle chain very much.

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