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Study on Export Structure and It’s Risk of China’s Citrus Products

Author: LiuWenJun
Tutor: QiChunJie
School: Huazhong Agricultural University
Course: International Trade
Keywords: citrus products export structure export structure risk EfficiencyCoefficient Method Principal Component Analysis
CLC: F326.13
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 343
Quote: 0
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Abstract


China is the world’s largest citrus producing countries and citrus is one of the largest three fruits in China. The citrus industry occupies an important position in China’s rural economic development. After China’s accession to the WTO, the citrus industry has developed rapidly, especially for citrus export. However, several problems of citrus exports structure have been found in the process of citrus study. Firstly, China’s citrus planting area and output rank first in the world, but export quantity and value are far more behind than other countries, the trade efficiency is not good. Secondly, the structure of export commodities doesn’t match intensively with the demand structure of the world market. Thirdly, export market is too concentrated to withstand risks and so on. Then how export structure of and risk status China’s citrus products change? How much is export structure risk? In the context of these problems, study on the export structure and its risk of China’s exports of citrus products is not only necessary for clearly understanding trade position and establishing future exports trade policies, measures and strategic direction, but also significant for exerting export potential, reducing structure risk and promoting the upgrading of competitiveness both in theory and practice.The logic thinking of this paper is as follows:Firstly, the CMS model was used to decompose scale growth of citrus exports between1992and2010overall in four parts: market size, product structure, market structure and competitiveness, the contribution of each part to export growth was calculated. Then the export structure has been analyzed from four aspects:the structure of export varieties, period, patterns and market. Based on these analysis, indexes of evaluating export structure were been calculated to make detailed analysis of citrus structure changing trend.After that, Efficiency Coefficient Method and Principal Component Analysis were used to calculate and evaluate the degree of export structure risk for each, then export structure risk prediction was made from2011to2015. Finally, analysis of the impact factors on China’s citrus export structure and the structural risk was made from six angles:China’s citrus production structure, production costs, competition with major exporting countries, product differentiation with main export destination, demand structure and trade barriers.The innovations of this paper are mainly in three aspects. First, multiple indicators were integrated to make empirical analysis export structure of China’s citrus products. And the export structure has been analyzed from four aspects:the structure of export varieties, period, patterns and market; Based on the Efficiency Coefficient Method, the export structure risk of citrus products has been calculated and estimated for the first time. Gray Model was used to forecast the export structure risk.The conclusions of the dissertation are as follows:From CMS model, the commodity structure optimization played the most obvious role in boosting citrus exports; market distribution was the next. From analysis of export product structure, the dispersion of China’s citrus exports products is very small, and did not concentrate on the larger imports markets of world, so the commodity structure did not match strongly with world market. The intra-industry trade standard was not high, so it was easy to encounter trade friction. The major export markets are inconsistent with the import markets of fresh citrus fruit, while the canned orange flap was much consistent than fresh citrus fruits. Through the calculation structure risk of citrus exports, the export structure was at high risk before2005, only in1993,1998and2003are at the general risk status; Since2006, risk begins to decrease,export structures are at low-risk status in2006and2007, at risk-free in2008, but risk status was deterioration in2009and2010relatively to2008.Based on the research conclusions, in order to reduce the export structure risk, optimizing the export product was the primary task, exports of mandarin, Clementine citrus and canned orange flap must be reduced appropriately, and the capacity of orange juice exports must be enhanced. On this basis, optimizing export pattern, intra-industry trade capacity must be increased, while the structure of export markets must be gradually adjusted and diversified. Multi-pronged approaches are taken to reduce the risk of the export structure of China’s citrus.

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CLC: > Economic > Agricultural economy > China 's agricultural economy > Agricultural sector economy > Farming > Horticultural crops
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