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Empirical Research on the Relevance of Currency Mismatch’s Degree to China’s Exchange Rate Policy as Well as Currency Policy

Author: MaJun
Tutor: YuanYiTang; SuYuHai
Course: Finance
Keywords: Currency Mismatch Currency Policy Exchange Policy
CLC: F822.0
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 118
Quote: 0
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Since the1990s, the mismatch of foreign currency assets and foreign currencydebt make our country has a significant monetary mismatch in China, Along with thefluctuation of exchange rate changes, the corresponding monetary mismatch also canproduce change. When monetary mismatch accumulation reach to certain degree, itwill make a harmful effects to one country’s economic system. In the macro level,the mismatch is easy to aggravate the turmoil in the financial system, reduce theeffectiveness of monetary policy, affect exchange rate policy flexibility. Monetarymismatch can also lead to the deepening of macroeconomic policy of conflict,especially of the monetary policy and exchange rate policy conflict, the influence ofthe macro economic stability. For our country,international financial crisis havedisappeared, the European debt crisis vibration was not decreased, economicdownside haze shrouded the world, international crude oil gold prices eveninnovation high, the United States ‘s policy of quantitative loose, face huge inputtype inflationary pressures, domestic inflation pressure at length. In suchcomplicated financial environment, China’s exchange rate policy and monetarypolicy adjustment of the orientation and strength is of great significance, And how todeal with good currency exchange rates and mismatch problem relates to the validityof monetary policy and flexibility relates to our country economy ‘s stable andsustainable development. This article will link up exchange rate policy and theory ofmonetary policy closely with the currency mismatch, for the monetary policy andexchange rate policy formulation and adjusted to provide a new perspective for thepolicy adjustment, market to the monetary policy and exchange rate policyunderstanding has certain practical significance.This paper mainly make basic judgment; then with China’s actual data,combination and exchange rate policy, monetary policy related to the exchange rate,M2index, the consumer price index (CPI), specific data is analyzed, first from atheoretical perspective analysis of China’s currency mismatch of the specialconditions and decided to factors, and the theoretical judgment is correct or not. This paper content and the main conclusion from the following aspects:(1) this article first discusses the background, significance, and more abundantliterature review, and make the research situation of both at home and abroad for asystem summary. There will be a Innovative research on monetary mismatch andChina’s exchange rate policy, monetary policy.(2) There is an analysis on the status of China’s monetary mismatch. The articleIntroduces the effects on monetary mismatch related theory and estimate thecurrency amount of calculation model mismatch, analyzes the influential factors of amismatch in the currency. On the basis of China’s monetary mismatch degree ofbasic estimate, we find that the currency mismatch is relatively serious, it is in arising channel, and has relationship with the different period in China economicpolicy.(3) It is proved by the evidences that, the float of the exchange rate is one of theimportant factors that continuously affect the variation of the currency mismatch.The revaluation of RMB is helpful to alleviate currency mismatch. Meanwhile, it isfound through section to section comparisons, currency mismatch is closely relatedto foreign exchange policy. The affections on currency mismatch are differentdepending on foreign exchange policy.Experiment methods, including E-G method and Granger method, are involvedin the review on the relation between currency mismatch and currency policy ofChina. On one side, it examines the mid-target of currency mismatch and currencypolicy, the S-D relationship of currency; on the other side, it reviews the final target,the relationship of price stabilization and economy growth. The conclusion is that,the currency mismatch degree of China is positively related to general currencysupply. The affection of currency mismatch lasts for a long term with a long lagphase. At the same time, the affection weakens the independence of the currencypolicies of the central bank and directly leads to the low efficiency of currencypolicies that target on currency supply. Currency mismatch has the power to affectCPI but no obvious affection on economy growth.(4) In an innovative view of considering currency and foreign exchange policies comprehensively, this article analyzes the selectivity contradiction of currency andforeign exchange policies in China led by currency mismatch. Policy suggestionsregarding on improving currency mismatch is proposed as follow: modify economygrowth perception, increase overseas investment, improve finance market, selectproper macro-economy policies, reform the system of foreign exchange settlementand sales.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Currency > China's currency > Principle of policy and its elaborate
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