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Risk management - economic forest industry image obscured to more Xigong pepper industry as an example

Author: LiuXuan
Tutor: YeMeng; HuTingXing
School: Sichuan Agricultural University
Course: Silviculture
Keywords: tourism image masking product forestry industry image masking riskmanagement theory system of product forestry industry image masking pepper
CLC: F326.2
Type: PhD thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 5
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Tourism image masking belongs to the frontier of tourism planning studies. Internal scholars have been done relatively systemic and deep researches on tourism image masking about its meaning, extension and mechanism. Yet papers and literature show that no studies are on the image masking of product forestry industry and the pepper industry image masking, further no studies reported on the risk of image masking. So this article combine risk management theory with the theory of tourism image masking, do deep argumentation on the feasibility and aptness of tourism image masking application in product forestry industry image. And then put forward the concept of product forestry industry image masking, also discuss deeply on its meaning, extension and its risk about character and mechanism. At last form a system of product forestry industry image masking risk theory.The plantation euroky, higher market recognition degree and advanced industry develop of Hanyuan peppers make the Yuexi pepper industry under the masking of Hanyuan pepper industry image. Take this case for example, analysis have been done to the mechanism of its occurrence. Risk system recognition is working under the help of fault-tree analysis method based on the first step. Also construct a system of assessment index about Yuexi pepper industry image making risk, and measure the original value of risk at length. Then evaluate the manage priority of Yuexi pepper industry image masking risk based on TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution). And evaluate which synthetically with MLP neural network. At last build the reply strategy mechanism of Yuexi pepper industry image masking based on the final result. The main conclusions are as follow,(1) The relativity between Tourism image masking and product forestry industry image maskingIn this article studies show that the relativity between tourism image masking and product forestry industry image masking are close, the use of tourism image masking in studying product forestry industry image masking is accordant with the inner attribute and function of product forestry industry. First, subject, object and intermedium are involved in both. They are common in that the cognition rules of primacy effect and apperception principle both arise from the subject. The formation of tourism image masking and product forestry industry image masking is comfortable in itself. Second, tourism image masking and product forestry industry image masking both have sightseeing and recreation functions which make them keep in line in attribute and function.(2)Basic theory study on product forestry image masking risk①Conclusion about the concept of product forestry image masking riskThe concepts of product forestry image masking and product forestry image masking risk are defined in meaning and extension according tourism image masking with the concept theory in logic, which are traverse in character. The correlations in concepts of image masking, tourist image masking, product forestry industry image masking and product forestry industry image masking are compatibility relation and extension part superposition, which is a witness to the close relationship between tourism image masking and product forestry industry image masking further.②Conclusions of occurrence mechanism about product forestry industry image maskingAnalyzing the occurrence mechanism of forestry industry image masking finds related people (consumer, salesperson, program review expert and anyone refer to forestry industry) would apperceive the difference of same product forestry industry comprehensive development in different administrative regions, which lead to the formation of different images about goodness and badness. Risk root in philosophy category such as the inevitability and contingency, complicacy and epistemology. First, the inevitability risk occurs because that the risk derive from the inherent cognitive deviation of human leading to the deviation of practical results and the targets. Second, the occurrence of accidental risk arises from the severe asymmetry between the limited human cognitive abilities and objective complexity that lead to the generation of risk. Third, occurrence of cognitive risk due to the limitation of human cognitive ability tending to inevitable truth.Based on the analysis of causality and feedback loops in the system dynamics method, two main causal feedback loops are find on the forest industry image masking risk mechanism. One is history and culture of product forestry industry image-the plantation of product forestry-economy character-quality image-brand image-area of product forestry plantation-market image of product forestry industry-industry image of product forestry-image perception level-product forestry industry image masking risk, the other one is plantation history and culture of product forestry-area of product forestry processors-materials circulation-dinning industry-image of product forestry-image perception level-product forestry industry image masking risk. The two loops opening out the occurrence mechanism of product forestry industry image masking risk are uniform in itself.③Conclusions about the theory construction of product forestry industry image masking riskIncluding philosophy theory system, basic science theory system, technology management system and engineering techniques system, the constructed theory system is complete and systemic. The theory system not only base on the tourism image masking but also introject philosophy, logic, forestry, system dynamics, risk management and related technology science, which greatly expand the depth of research and application areas of the forest industry image masking risk.(3)Identification of the pepper industry image masking in YuexiCognition making risk, comparability masking risk of germ plasm source, spread masking risk, fault-tree of space masking risk about sub-top risk events are constructed and formed to a total fault-tree of the pepper industry image masking in Yuexi. The logical deductive relationship among events of total fault-tree and sub-top risk events fault-tree is or-gate risk event. There are total28minimum risk cutsets in Yuexi pepper industry image masking risk, all of which are one-step risk cutset (lowclass step). The one-step risk cutset is that only one basic risk event is in the risk cutset and is very important.(4)Risk management evaluation of the Yuexi pepper industry image masking basic on TOPSISRisk events Q.13(biological characteristics similarity risk between Yuexi and Hanyuan), Q.14(comparative range of biological traits convergence risk), Q.15(peppers kinship similar risk of Yuexxi and Hanyuan), Q.22(the reachability index of the extension path network making risk in Yuexi pepper industry) are with Higher risk management priority. While cognition masking risk (Q.1-Q.12) and difference risk of image obtain path (Q.16-Q.19) are in the middle. The lowest are Q.20(α、β、γ index masking risk), Q.21(network nodes masking risk of extention path network) and Q.23(average pathway length masking risk of extention path network).(5)Evaluation of the Yuexi pepper industry image masking risk based on MLPCognition masking risk value of Yuexi pepper industry image is0.47(middle risk), while which in Hanyuan is0.29(low risk). Similarity masking risk value of pepper germ plasm source in Yuexi and Hanyuan are both0.49(higher risk), which reveal that the pepper in Yuexi and Hanyuan share a common genetic. Spread masking risk value of Yuexi pepper industry is0.85(the highest risk). And Hanyuan Gets the value0.75(High risk). Space masking risk value of Yuexi pepper industry is0.55(middle risk), which is higher than that of Hanyuan (0.44). Aggregate risk value of Yuexi pepper industry image masking is0.60(middle risk). The risk class of Yuexi is same to that of Hanyuan, but which value is higher than that of Hanyuan (0.50). as a result pepper industry image of Hanyuan leads to the masking risk to that of Yuexi.(7)Construction of mechanism replying to the masking risk of Yuexi pepper industry imageBuild the pepper industry image masking risk replying mechanisms based on tourist destination and regional pepper industry collaborative development. Put forward two new industry images of Hanyuan pepper industry, one is Daliangshan tribute pepper Yi Township in The Silk Road-Yuexi, and the other one is Yuexi tribute pepper-the reincarnation of Wenchang Emperor Zhang Yazi. But because of the pepper industry comprehensive competitiveness of Yuexi nowhere near Hanyuan and both pepper pattern of industrial development is very uneven. So only new image location is poor to reply the risk radically. Based on this the paper proposes a development road of the Yuexi and Hanyuan pepper industry going regionalization collaborative. Build the Sichuan pepper industry development coordination and management office based on "1+1+N"(Yuexi+Hanyuan+others pepper origin) to manage the pepper industry in Yuexi and Hanyuan uniformly, perpendicularly, synergistically.

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