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The Study on Credit Risk and Its Factor of the Quasi-municipal Bond
Author: ZhangZuo
Tutor: LiuXiLiang
School: Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: Quasi-municipal Bond Credit risk Factor
CLC: F832.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 623
Quote: 3
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Abstract
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During 2008, China’s investment and financing platform for the local government grew rapidly, and the development of Quasi-municipal Bond is explored. As the natural link between the bond and the local government, its credit risk is different from other bonds. And as a financial innovation, how to pricing it is still uncertain and is a big problem to us.Quasi-municipal Bond is a kind of alternative financing method existing under today’s specific economic situation of China to avoid the limitation of related law and to dissolve the problems of municipal’lack of capital. However, during today’s high-speed development of China, Quasi-municipal Bond begins to show a few problems gradually and arouse wide concern. Further research into Quasi-municipal bond has a prolonged economic and political significance for ruling its proper development, deepening the reform of our economic system and municipal financing mechanism, boosting municipals’construction and accelerating the development of China’s economy.This study focused on the pricing of the credit risk and its factors during the Quasi-municipal Bond issued. As theoretical and empirical research methods combined, the study has significance. The hardest work is the collection of large number of data, as well as data sort. And the structure of this paper began with the theory research of credit risk, and end with the empirical research of its factor.The credit risk of Quasi-municipal Bond is divided into three parts-the risk of local financial support, micro-enterprise risk management, and the guarantee method of the bond. And then, the paper focus on find out its influence factor and make a model for them, using the credit spread to make sure its’correction. At last, we provide some suggestion for the development of the market.The main contribution of this paper is:1. According to the definition and its nature of Quasi-municipal Bond, the paper proposes three criteria and standards applied in practice. Based on this criteria, we sort out 498 Quasi-municipal Bond in this field.2. According to the ratings of municipal bonds in the developed countries, we divide the credit risk into three parts and find out quantitative evaluation indicators.3. According to theoretical and empirical research methods combined, we find our some important factors of the credit risk of Quasi-municipal Bond, and with this research we provide some suggestions to political leader to help the development of the market of Quasi-municipal Bond.There are some researchers which still need to be done further. First is the empirical research which is lack of factor analyses. So we can not know which factor contributes more to the credit risk and their weight. Second is the lack of true data of the government’s finance. If we can dissolve these problem, this paper may be more accurate.
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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Financial market
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