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Study on Credit Risk of Lanzhou Urban Construction and Investment Bonds

Author: ZhangQiuLi
Tutor: JiaHongWen
School: Lanzhou University
Course: Finance
Keywords: Lanzhou development and investment co. ltd credit risk BP neural networkmodel
CLC: F832.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 209
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Local government set up investment and financing platform to invest projects and finance after tax system reform, which urban construction investment company is the most important organization. The platform plays a significant role in urbanization and international financial crisis. However, funding has been always the bottleneck hindering the development, Bonds issuance as one of the diversification financing modes is an effective financing way, and it’s also a guarantee for company sustainable development. Since1993, shanghai urban construction I&D corporation issued the first quasi-municipal bond of just500million RMB, the small-scale but a good start, The unban construction and investment bond has already experienced twenty years. It’s always the investor’s favorite with the feature of high interest rate and quasi-municipal in capital market. But frequently plunged in the primary and secondary market led to a panic, investors began worrying about the credit degree and chose to leave the bond market form July2011. while some experts pointed out that it wouldn’t have credit risk as a high public and deep influence bond. In fact, it’s very difficult for investors to have a objective understanding about the credit risk degree, because at present assessment on urban construction investment company bonds is absent, no more than tracking assessment,furthermore assessment disorder is also a very common phenomenon. The investor is confused.In this paper, BP ANN(Back-propagation Artificial Neural Networks) is used to assess credit degree of Lanzhou urban construction investment company after the successful issue of "09Lanzhou bonds" and "11Lanzhou bonds". From then on the investors will have a rational understanding of the bonds, and won’t follow market fluctuation blindly. Meanwhile, it’s also a warm to the company:make a reasonable plan to insure economic and social benefits, and propose improvement measures in regulating mechanism. Relevant departments must supervise the capital flow, prevent and control potential risk.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Financial market
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