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Evolution of economic and spatial pattern based on gray system theory

Author: ZhouXuan
Tutor: GanXiaoRong
School: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Course: System theory
Keywords: Grey system theory Grey incidence analysis Moran’s I Spatial lag model Spatial autocorrelation
CLC: F127
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 20
Quote: 0
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Abstract


It is well known that the fast development of economics may raise the living standards, improve citizen’s livelihood, promote the progresses and harmony of society. Therefore, the hot spot and key of the academic circle research is related on economic development. So far as we know, the main-standard economic theory was usually considered that spaces were homogeneous and the economic activity was only related on time dimension, just regarding that the local economic activities do not have the mutual connection and neglecting the three-dimensional effect. However, Economic study which carries on this kind of supposition and pulls out the space factor is not tally with the economic reality. In fact, the economic activity and economic phenomena’s imbalanced distribution is one kind of habit, instance essential factors such as natural resource, work, capital and technical knowledge are not uniform distribution in the geography space. The different natural resources and the resources talent as the area border trade’s foundation also involve the distance question on different geographical units. Therefore, it is very essential to considered the three-dimensional effect of the economic activity on the economic study. It is the production and the development of spatial statistics and spatial measurement economic method that impel the traditional time economic to the spatial economic, even to the space and time economic.In this paper, we will base the spatial measurement economic method to analyze whether the economy of various regions have relations and establish the related regression model for the existential space non-uniformity variable. But in the actual research, we found that it is difficult to build the model because of so many influence factors. So, this article proposes the gray incidence analysis to reduce the unstable in equation which the variable brings out. Screening the correlated variable with the gray incidence analysis method obtains the most interrelated factor, then using spatial statistical analysis to build model. It can avoid that the excessive variable affects the stability of the model. It is very meaningful for reducing the regional disparity, speeding up the development of underdeveloped areas, and maintaining the competitive power of developed local. This article chooses Chongqing as the object of study. Analyzing data from 2002 to 2009, we get that economy development displays the strong spatial autocorrelation in various area of Chongqing country. Combining the gray incidence analytic and the spatial regression mode, we get the conclusion that the reasons mainly influence county territory economical including agricultural, the industry and the traffic factor. Finally, we establish the corresponding model and give some useful advices. It provides quite important reference and the guiding value to the department in making the related policy setting.

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CLC: > Economic > The world economic profiles,economic history,economic geography > China's economy > The local economy
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