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Study on the imbalance of current account in China based on the population age structure

Author: XuJie
Tutor: SongShiFang
School: Shanghai International Studies University
Course: International Trade
Keywords: Population Age Structure dependency ratio Current Account
CLC: F752
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2014
Downloads: 96
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With the accelerating process of economic globalization, international trade is becomingincreasingly frequent. Meanwhile, the problem of current account imbalance is graduallyhighlighted. On one hand, the problem makes the surplus countries to withstand the pressure ofcurrency appreciation; on the other hand, it hinders the normal trade between countries. The studyon the causes of current account imbalances can help countries develop policies to reasonablyrectify imbalances smoothly. After World War II, the change of population age structure provideda new way of thinking the problem and a lot of empirical data to support. From the perspective ofpopulation can help policy makers to grasp the long-term trend of current account, with a strongpractical significance.At first, the paper listed related theories that explained current account imbalance, andestablished a theoretical model. Then, according to the theoretical model, the paper described thetransmission mechanism on how population age structure affects current account balance.Thereafter, the paper conducted an empirical test and analysis based on the time series data ofChina. The result showed that the dependency ratio has a negative impact on the current accountbalance. At last, the paper proposed some policy recommendations based on relevant conclusionsand China’s future trend of population age structure.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > States foreign trade > China's foreign trade
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