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Fiscal revenues and expenditures balanced development of sustainable fiscal policy research

Author: HanLi
Tutor: HuZuo
School: Capital University of Economics
Course: Quantitative Economics
Keywords: Sustainability of fiscal policy Structural deficit Cointegration test
CLC: F812.4;F812.0
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 137
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In recent years, the worldwide financial crisis , frequent outbreaks , not only caused the government credit crisis the country bankrupt , economic stagnation , the people living in difficult , exacerbated by the financial turmoil in the international range , affect the financial stability of other countries . In response to the 2008 financial crisis , the Chinese government introduced a series of economic stimulus plan , the budget deficit continued to increase , the balance of government bonds is also increasing rapidly . The people began to worry about the the continuous massive budget deficit and debt balance will cause the government financial crisis , even a threat to the financial security and sustainable economic development . Starting from the financial risk of the formation of the root of the content of the theoretical research and policy practice , for clues to the formation, development and the initial response to the course of the financial risk on the basis of theoretical analysis of financial risk and fiscal policy sustainable , establish the theoretical analysis of the sustainability of fiscal policy framework , based on the status quo of China 's fiscal revenue and expenditure of quantitative analysis and empirical test , combined with fiscal policy over the years , and the sustainability of China 's fiscal policy . Empirical test process using the HP filter method of the structural deficit , the results show that although the rate of China 's structural deficit is too large , but in recent years the trend is gradually narrowing . At the same time , China's fiscal revenue and expenditure cointegration test found that the cross of China 's fiscal revenue and expenditure to meet budget constraints , government fiscal policy is sustainable . However, the size of the debt will continue to expand . The empirical results show that from the angle of the balanced development of the financial revenue and expenditure , China's fiscal policy is sustainable . Finally, the empirical results for further analysis and summary of recommendations to improve the sustainability of China 's fiscal policy .

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, the state's financial > China's financial > Principle of policy and its elaborate
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