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The Research on Logistics Park Construction Risk Evaluation Based on the BP Neural Network

Author: CaoZuo
Tutor: MaoJia; YinGuiJun
School: Jilin University
Course: Traffic and Transportation Engineering
Keywords: Logistics district BP neural system the factors of risk Model
CLC: TU984.13
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 65
Quote: 0
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Abstract


With the rapid development of economy in our country, logistics industry alsopresents an excellent trend, in the recent years, the development of the logistics industryis booming. As a part of the logistics industry, more and more attention has being paidto the construction of logistics district, many experts and scholars have doing a lot ofresearch and demonstration on the possibility of its operations.Due to the largeinvestment, risk and long cycle characteristics of the construction of logistics district,the research on the risk assessment becomes crucial.This article mainly applies the established BP neural system model to evaluate therisk level of the construction of the park. The risk evaluation index system of logisticsdistrict construction is built by the combination of the6sections and24aspects, such asthe natural environment risk, political and social risk, economic risk, technology risk,management risk and public relations risks. in this system, we can obtain the risk levelin the construction operation by using the model in the process of the whole project.Thearticle specific arrangement is as follows:In the first chapter, We mainly introduced the importance of risk assessment oflogistics park, the progress of research on this issue did by experts and scholars both athome and abroad, and the research methods and research content of this paper.In the second chapter, we mainly study the theory of the logistics district. Somerelated concepts for logistics district are introduced; we also reveal the basiccharacteristics of the risk of logistics park theoretically, which laid a solid foundationfor the following research.In the third chapter, through the application of WBS model, the risk evaluation indexsystem of logistics district construction is established in systematic and detail under theprinciple, ready for the construction of the fourth chapter model.In the fourth chapter, we mainly introduce the artificial neural network system andthe basic principle of BP neural network system. Second, according to the constructionof risk index system which is sums up of last chapter, the logistics district riskevaluation model is established based on BP neural network system. At last, we writethe model of the program in the MATLAB environment. In the fifth chapter, we train and adjust model, which is built in the previous chapter.After the test, when the model running correctly, this model will be applied to the riskevaluation of logistics district construction in MeiHeKou city, Jilin province. Accordingto the actual situation, the model obtain the risk level of the construction is “low risk”,which means that it is fit for building logistics district, and puts forward the opinionsand suggestions for the aversion of risk.In the sixth chapter, we pointed out the article successes as well as the improvementin the future, which will pointed out the direction of the research for the subsequentresearchers.In this paper, we assess the risk of logistics district by establishing the model, theresearch achievements can rich the theory of logistics district construction and providecertain guidance and reference value to the risk evaluation method.

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CLC: > Industrial Technology > Building Science > Regional planning, urban and rural planning > City planning > Urban planning layout > An industrial park,business district planning
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