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Study on the relationship between the purchase limit policy and real estate prices based on the whole analysis of housing loans and housing prices.

Author: HuangZuo
Tutor: YanLiKun
School: Yunnan University of Finance
Course: Applied Statistics
Keywords: housing restriction policy personal housing loan housing salesprice co-integration analysis Causality test
CLC: F299.23
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 8
Quote: 0
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Abstract


At present, With the rapid development of the real estate market and anunprecedented rise in house prices, the central government gives a high attention tothe real estate market. So the government issued a series of policy to regulate the realestate market and hopes to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market.Among those policies, the most concerned about is a series of restrictions of purchaseprice. The first, the rising of housing loan interest rates; the second, the rising ofdown payment ratio. In addition to this, for those cities which commercial housingprices rising too fast, the government can also abolish the preferential policy of thethird housing loans. No matter which one the government will take, the source ofcapital of purchasing houses would be limited.The different scholars have different views on the purchasing restrictions policy.Some scholars believe that the policy is good for the estate market, and some scholarsreckon that the policy will destroy the normal order of housing market.Based on this situation, this article selects “the personal housing loan” and“housing sales price” as the research object. And selects to study the relationshipbetween them as the research problem. So according this, we puts forward someideas:The first step, based on the effect of the implementation of the policy forpurchasing, think that purchase restrictions have significant effects on individualhousing loans. According the actual values of personal housing loans, we can findthat despite the restrictions, but the personal housing loan balance is growing. Thearticle obtains from the actual situations, based on the reality of the economicdevelopment of the real estate market, and eventually think that the higher theenforcement of restrictions, the higher the personal housing loan balance.The second step, based on the reality, Assumes that individual housing loans canaffect real estate prices, That is to say, the former can cause changes in the housing sales price. On the basis of the hypothesis, in this paper, we combine theco-integration test and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between thepersonal housing loan and the actual changes of estate prices.The third step, according to the result of empirical analysis, draw a conclusion:there is a co-integration relationship between the Personal housing loan and housingsales price. That is to say, between the two is the proportion of long-term and stablerelationship. Not only that, the empirical analysis also proves that the Grangerrelationship between the personal housing loan and housing sales price is one-way.Personal housing loan can not cause changes in housing sales prices, while the lattercan cause changes in the former one.The forth step, now that we have know there is a positive correlation relationshipbetween personal housing loan and housing sales prices. So and so on there is apositive correlation between restrictions and real estate prices. So this paper arguesthat restrictions are not effectively curb the high real estate prices.The last, Since the personal housing loan is not the cause of the change of thehousing sales price, regulation of individual housing loans to regulate the overheatinghousing market is not effect. That is to say, restrictions can not effectively control thehousing market. On this basis, this paper puts forward the corresponding policyrecommendations: One is to strengthen the power of supplying of affordable housingand economy applicable room. The second is combining the credit policy with theproperty tax. The third is strengthening the regulation power of local government andestablish a perfect early warning mechanism to guard against credit risk.

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