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Research on Investment Risk Analysis and Evaluation in Real Estate Development Project

Author: MaXiaoHui
Tutor: SunQiuBai
School: Liaoning University of Science and Technology
Course: Technology Economics and Management
Keywords: Real estate development projects Investment risk Hierarchical analysis Non-linear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
CLC: F299.23
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2012
Downloads: 87
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Along with our country national economy developingsustainably, rapidly and healthily, speed up the adjustment of industrialstructure and the proportion of the tertiary industry increase gradually. Asthe one of foundation in nation economy, the real estate industry isbecoming increasingly significant. According to the calculation, oureconomy has grown7%~8%in recent years, and about1.6%~2.5%ofthe growth can attribute to the real estate industry. Real estate has becomeone of the major investment hot spot, investment has been increasing yearby year, and the real estate industry is raising trend on the whole.However, there is also containing great risk behind the boomdevelopment, especially under the circumstances that the real estatemarket mechanism still is not perfect in our country.In recent years, real estate price has risen too quickly, and that has acertain negative impact to the real estate market. Therefore, thegovernment issued a continuous several policy on real estate marketregulation, such as financial policy, land policy, etc. Frequent change ofpolicy make the whole real estate market is full of uncertainty and theseuncertainties determines the success or failure of the development project.Therefore, real estate developers want to succeed in developing theproject, they must make further study on real estate developmentprojects’ investment risk. Based on in-depth analysis of investment risk,combined with the current macro environment of real estate market, thenseeking an effective risk assessment method to evaluate the risk of thereal estate development project is the key to this research, and it is thecore of this paper.First of all, the paper summaries research present situation on realestate investment risk at home and abroad and analyzing insufficiency inthe research field of real estate investment risk. Secondly, from the policy,market, enterprise financial situation and the project location four aspects,analyzing the factors of real estate development project investment riskdeeply. Next, select the evaluation index and evaluation method; improvethe exiting fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and establishing a non-linear fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model. Finally, use theempirical test the model, and the result show that the non-linear fuzzycomprehensive evaluation model can evaluate the risk more accurate. Atthe same time, the paper puts forward the specific measures to preventinvestment exist in real estate development project, expected to havesome specific reference for developers.

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