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The Study of Theory and Practice Issues of Core CPI of China

Author: LiZiXin
Tutor: YangCan
School: Xiamen University
Course: Statistics
Keywords: Core CPI Exclusion Method Censored Average Method WeightedMedian Method Structural Vector Auto-regression
CLC: F222.33
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2014
Downloads: 3
Quote: 0
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Abstract


At present, many countries have adopted inflation targeting monetary policy to determine the safety of a range of price changes, price changes once beyond safe limits, the monetary authorities should take certain monetary policy to control prices. Inflation targeting involves the prediction and actual values of inflation and other variables, these can not be directly measured by the current title CPI, because the title CPI reflects the changes in the consumer price level of all consumer goods and services easily affected and showed volatility of short-term factors, which affect the general price level of judgment. In order to effectively formulate and implement monetary policy and related financial decisions, it is necessary to construct an indicator of long-term and stable price level trend-core CPI.The studies of the core CPI is mainly divided into two parts, the first part is the preparation of the theoretical study of the core CPI, containing the meanings of core CPI, the methods of calculating and the application of the core CPI, furthermore the advantages and disadvantages of each method were briefly overviewed and evaluated, according to China’s national conditions, and then determined to use statistical methods to measure the core CPI; second part of the core CPI is applications in China, first by establishing varying parameter model for the major categories of goods and commodities included in our title CPI, we estimated their weights, and then from medium commodity level, used statistical methods--exclusion method, censored average method and weighted median method to calculate the core CPI from January2005to June2013, and made some evaluation and comparison of the calculation results, which showed that the core CPI calculated by the exclusion measure accurately portrayed the title CPI’s trend, had good stability, and was consistent with timeliness, robustness, comparability and easily accepted by the public, etc., so it is necessary for this method to become the preferred method to calculate the core CPI, and the censored average method can be used as an auxiliary reference.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic Statistics > Specialized economic statistics > Gross Domestic
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