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Research on Default Risk Evaluation Based on the Behavioral Perspective of Individual Housing Credit

Author: WangTao
Tutor: ZhaoZuo
School: Ocean University of China
Course: Finance
Keywords: Individual housing credit default Behavioral economics indexsyetem impact effect
CLC: F832.45
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 91
Quote: 0
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Abstract


In recent years, the financial crisis occur frequently, the credit risk of commercialbanks has become the current hot issues. In the domestic housing market overheatingbackground, research on borrowers of housing credit business bank default shockeffect rate is the current economic situation, the urgent need to address the problem.Based on the behavior of market participants and commercial bank housing creditdefault rate as the research object, discuss the following questions:1) analysis in theface of changes in the market, individual housing credit market participants behaviorand psychological changes;2) construct the evaluation index system of the personalhousing credit default;3) analysis the individual behavior change default shock effectrate of the personal housing credit. In view of the above questions, the research workand the contributions in the following aspects:First, for individual housing credit behavior changes, this paper mainly referredto the behavior theory and present research situation at home and abroad, thescientific analysis psychological changes due to the trends and countermeasures of themarket participants when facing the banking market changes,.Secondly, on the establishment of the evaluation index system of commercialbank individual housing credit, on the basement of the definition of individualhousing credit behavior factors, mainly the use of interpretative structural modeldrawing layer on all indicators to classify, to define the behavior of individual housingcredit default factors and objective factors, research on these factors and have directand indirect effects on housing credit default behavior are described.Again, the impact analysis on the personal housing credit behavior factors ofhousing credit default rate, this paper mainly focus on the establishment of theimpulse response model with five behavioral indicators of interpretive structuralmodel to define the default, and then analyze the influences on the rate of individualhousing credit in the econometrics simultaneous equations. The results show that (1)rate of the growth of national economy, land price, The supply of housing area, policylaws related to housing area real estate finance and basic borrowers (borrowersmonthly income, disposable income, age, occupation and so on) are behavioral factorsof housing credit default class effect, then the individual housing credit default rateshave indirect influence, regardless of the index whether will have direct or indirectinfluence on the time and space dimensions.(2) analysis found in the impulseresponse, individual housing credit default behavior factor is more sensitive tochanges in the impact effect, usually larger in the second period of will, and effects ofshort duration; simultaneous equation results, behavioral factors analysis of expectedprice growth, future income confidence index and current object satisfaction index onthe personal housing default rate influence, future price satisfaction index and theindex of current income feel relatively smaller effect. Finally, put forward the corresponding policy suggestions in this paper, focus ison the borrower communication education, including lateral communication,strengthen commercial banks to establish credit information sharing mechanism andincentive mechanism.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Credit > Real estate credit
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