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China’s Commercial Banks Credit Procyclical Research

Author: LiMing
Tutor: FeiYuE
School: Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics
Course: Finance
Keywords: commercial bank credit procyclical counter-cyclical regulatoryl
CLC: F832.4
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 5
Quote: 0
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The financial system has inherent procyclicality. Banks as special financialenterprises, it has a profit-driven nature, which often result in the economic boom ofits expansion of the credit scale, the size of credit crunch in the recession period. Thisis a typical commercial bank credit procyclical behavior, both to reduce its profitincome, the accumulation of a large number of potential risks, weakeningmacroeconomic policies, exacerbated by economic fluctuations.The global financialcrisis has brought to many historic sound operation of large commercial banks greatlyinfluence the pro-cyclical behavior of commercial bank credit has also become thefocus of attention of the world. Commercial banks in order to improve China’scommercial banks to deal with the systemic risk arising from fluctuations inmacroeconomic cross-cycle, health and sustainable development.In this paper, on the basis of the theory of the economic cycle and the credittheory, first according to the fluctuations of the economic cycle and the commercialbank credit, summarizes the main features of the pro-cyclical performance of China’scommercial bank credit, and elaborate procyclical impact of China’s commercial bankcredit factors. China’s commercial bank credit and using VECM model, our June1997-2012macroeconomic data (GDP), the commercial bank loan balance (Loan)and commercial banks’ bad loan ratio (NPL) empirical analysis, validation does existobvious pro-cyclical phenomenon. Foreign commercial banks are relatively mature,relatively perfect management system, the paper describes the the internationalbanking mitigation credit procyclical experience and Implications for China, laid thetheoretical basis and practical experience for weakening of credit procyclicalproblems. Finally, according to the pro-cyclical characteristics and influencing factorsof China’s commercial bank credit, improve the country’s macroeconomic policies,strengthen counter-cyclical regulatory and improve three aspects of the commercialbank credit behavior proposed weakening of commercial bank credit procyclicalsuggestions.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Credit
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