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An Empirical Research about the Price Discovery Function of the RI Futures in China

Author: GuFoZhang
Tutor: PengDiYun
School: Nanchang University
Course: Business Administration
Keywords: futures market early indica rice RI price discovery Risk management
CLC: F724.5
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 8
Quote: 0
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Our country is agricultural production and marketing power, also is the importer of agricultural products. Among them, the rice production and consumption accounted for one-third of the world. China has an estimated two-thirds of the population with rice as the main food, the price of rice in the food and agricultural products price system has an important influence. Rice spot market, however, the lack of effective market price formation mechanism. Current minimum purchase price policy of restricting the development of grain price system, rice spot prices failed to accurately reflect market supply and demand.From the experience of developed countries, the price discovery function of futures market can effectively resolve some of the problems exist in the process of marketization of grain prices. As a result, the price discovery function of futures markets in the grain market system and compensate for the spot market defects has its natural advantages.On April20,2009, RI in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange traded on the market. The perfect our country food and agricultural products futures market system has important and far-reaching significance. RI markets provide a price for the important basis for rice growers to adjust production, is also a rice processing and trading enterprises to evade the tools of market risk. RI market and spot market influence each other, and gradually formed its own system of pricing mechanism, makes the rice market development continuously. As of October2013, RI traded on the market for nearly five years, the domestic few studies to RI market price discovery function. In-depth study RI price impact on spot prices, analyzes RI function of markets have found, and then improve the RI contracts and spot price formation mechanism of rice, has theoretical value and practical significance.In this paper, from the beginning of the domestic rice industry situation analysis, in the second part mainly analyzes the status and the price mechanism of rice, rice industry in China in the third part USES statistical analysis to portray RI market operation state, and in the fourth part USES co-integration test and granger causality test on RI market price discovery function for empirical analysis. Through the analysis, this paper get the following conclusion:basic normal RI market operation, but we will continue to improve the space; Exchange can run according to the present problems of RI contracts in futures warehouse receipt position on cost and delivery cost further optimization; RI market have complete on spot price discovery function, RI price has a guiding role on the spot price; Can pass RI market to improve rice existing minimum purchase price policy,"settlement" after first purchase, purchase policies can make up for the deficiency of the existing policy, perfect the policy for the protection of the interests of the food and agriculture, ensure national food security.

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CLC: > Economic > Trade and Economic > China's domestic trade and economic > Circulation of commodities > Futures Trading
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