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An Empirical Study on Impact Factors of China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

Author: WangShanShan
Tutor: ZhuZuo
School: Central South University
Course: Financial
Keywords: Foreign exchange reserves Influencing factors Regression analysis
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2013
Downloads: 46
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Foreign exchange is important to the international financial system; Foreign exchange reserve scale is an important symbol of a country’s economic characteristics. Foreign exchange reserve subject to the governments particularly, sufficient foreign exchange reserve not only directly affects the stability of the exchange rate and the ability to regulate the balance of international payments, but also indirectly affects the financial security of the national and international economic credibility. China’s foreign exchange reserves up to$3.4trillion, the impact of the foreign exchange on China’s economy has become increasingly prominent, Suppression measures have not been effective, and affecting the government and academics heart, foreign exchange reserve has become the focus of attention, becoming the focus and emphasis of the study.At the forefront of such a situation, in this paper, the influence factors of the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves are analyzed. Firstly, it’s the description of the background and significance, reviews the research status in mainland and abroad for foreign exchange reserve, and introduces the theoretical basis of the foreign exchange reserve. Secondly, I used the method of qualitative and quantitative to study the development of China’s foreign exchange reserve from the year of1985, focusing on the impact of various economic variables on the scale of China’s foreign exchange reserve. Qualitative point of the main content is summarized in various stages since China’s reform and opening up foreign exchange reserve as well as the main reason for change. The main content of-the quantitative point of view is selected the logarithm of foreign exchange reserves, foreign direct investment as the variables of the model number, dependence on import and export trade, the RMB exchange rate and financial openness, using Eviews6.0software statistically tests the annual data from1985to2011, Drawn import dependence has a negative impact on the foreign exchange reserve, export dependence on the foreign exchange reserve has a positive impact; the average exchange rate and foreign direct investment in the long run have a significant impact on China’s foreign exchange reserve, there is a short-term foreign exchange reserve to the equilibrium exchange rate adjustment mechanism in which the role of the foreign exchange reserves in the short-term and long-term fluctuations in.Finally, on the conclusion of the regression calculation result, policy recommendations for how to manage the Foreign Exchange Reserves are put forward: continuing to implement market economic system based on market supply and demand and a basket of currencies economic policy and a managed floating exchange rate policy; Coordinating import and export, to promote the balance of payments; Stabling foreign exchange reserve management; Strengthening management of foreign exchange reserve and monetary policy coordination.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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