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Research on the Impact of RMB Appreciation, Depreciation and Its Volatility on China’s Foreign Trade-based on the Empirical Analysis Since 2005

Author: ShuMin
Tutor: JiangZhuYan
School: Suzhou University
Course: International Trade
Keywords: Renminbi U.S. dollar Changes in the value of the level of the exchange rate Volatility Import and export trade
CLC: F822.0;F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2010
Downloads: 578
Quote: 1
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Abstract


Since the implementation of the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism since July 2005 , the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to appreciate , volatility has gradually expanded , and the appreciation of the renminbi has become the focus of the world . The change in the exchange rate will affect a country's trade flows , thereby affecting the country's foreign trade situation . Thus , studying the RMB exchange rate changes on import and export trade is important for China's future development of trade and economic significance . Through the establishment of the RMB exchange rate level changes in the value of its volatility model of the impact of China 's import and export trade , the use of econometric analysis method , the following conclusions : short-term emerged as a significant lag effect both on the import and export trade , and the impact negative ; long-term effect is different, the former had no effect , which imports and exports are a positive impact . RMB exchange rate level changes in the value of its volatility both total effect depends on the net effect of China 's import and export trade , the appreciation of the renminbi , short-term decline in exports , increased imports , the deterioration of the trade balance ; while increasing the long - term import and export , as exports the rate of increase is greater than the magnitude of the increase in imports , the trade balance improved . Finally, based on empirical results from the two levels of government and corporate suggestions .

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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