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Method Based on AHP-GRAM "M Real Estate" Investment Risk Evaluation

Author: XieRenZhi
Tutor: XuWeiJun
School: South China University of Technology
Course: Industrial Engineering
Keywords: Real estate Investment risk Relevant analysis AHP-GRAM Model
CLC: F224
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 91
Quote: 0
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Abstract


Along with our country socialist market economic system’s unceasing consummation, the real estate industry is getting more and more important in national economy’s status. However, because many risk factors, more complex forms of real estate investments, investment process more and more uncertain factors, risks of real estate investment will increase. However, there are many investors in the operation of real estate investment there is a certain blindness to the real estate investment risk analysis, simply use static analysis methods (such as break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic analysis methods, etc.), and the lack of even neglect of the risk factors are important risk factors inter-related system studies. Resulting in investment in the project can’t operate normally, a lot of money withdrawn from circulation and precipitation can’t be timely turnover, and ultimately lead to project abortion even bankruptcy.This article through to the real estate commonly used risk assessment method comparison and the appraisal, in view of the M real estate project, inducts the AHP-GRAM anatomic model, with the analytic hierarchy process person’s subjective judgment with quantity form expression, processing, surveys fully each risk indicator or each risk indicator the proportion which occupies in the investment in real estate risk; Simultaneously uses the gray connection analytic method, expresses between each risk indicator or each risk indicator relevance fully, tries hard to strengthen the risk factor the interrelatedness research, thus is auxiliary the macro-scientific policy-making.This article mainly launches from following several aspects to the M real estate project carries on the risk factor relevance analysis:1. Introduced that the investment in real estate characteristic and the investment in real estate objective existence risk factor, then elaborated the investment in real estate risk analysis necessity.2. Through to the investment in real estate risk assessment commonly used method’s ratio to with the appraisal, the risk assessment method which definite this article uses.3. Carries on the identification to the M real estate project investment risk factor and classifies again, inducts the AHP-GRAM model to carry on the risk factor relevance analysis to the M real estate project, thus provides the science for this project’s decision-making the rationale.4. Real estate projects by the M correlation analysis of risk factors, and ultimately determine if the project is relatively small venture capital program.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Economic calculation, economic and mathematical methods > Economic and mathematical methods
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