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Asset pricing model based on the residential market in Lanzhou City irrational Growth Rates

Author: ChenZuo
Tutor: LiuKaiRui
School: Shaanxi Normal University
Course: Management of land resources
Keywords: Real estate Speculation foam Market of assets
CLC: F293.3
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2011
Downloads: 48
Quote: 0
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The real estate industry is the pillar industry of national economy, as well known, large-scale real estate investment, involving a long chain of funding, cash flow is slow, the industry association also widely used, since the development of the housing market reform in 1998 since, along with China’s rapid economic growth, the real estate industry has also been an unprecedented development. In the real estate market, residential market accounted for the main part of the real estate market, residential real estate market share market share percentage is also rising. However, with the commercialization of the housing market, most large and medium cities in China’s rapid rise in house prices appears, and the high situation, examine the income of urban residents in the level of normal, high house prices back to affordability of the residents out of for the livelihood of the residents a lot of pressure, over time will also regions, the country’s overall economic stability and security. Faced with this situation, urban real estate prices have raised many of our experts, academics, government and the media attention. On the residential market, real estate price bubble due to problems such as the academia and the whole community discussion. But the integrated effect of urban factors on real estate prices, I found that in our country, most of the research is being developed areas of the country or in particular, for China’s economy is relatively backward western regions, especially as second-tier cities in the west of Lanzhou compare this less. And on research methods and research level, most studies are based on basic economic side relationship with the city for many real estate prices, while high real estate prices of the factors that are rare, on how to control the room price rise of the instability is less and less. In the western city of Lanzhou important political, economic and cultural center of the city, with the pace of the advance of western development, Lanzhou City in recent years has been significant economic development. The real estate market in unprecedented prosperity, the city’s 2009 total 92.598 billion yuan GDP, an increase of 11.51%; total fixed asset investment was 43.198 billion yuan, an increase of 20.46%. At the same time, Lanzhou City in 20098.997 billion yuan investment in residential construction, real estate industry’s GDP 2.295 billion yuan. With the rapid growth of the real estate industry, people will doubt, Lanzhou City, the residential market in recent years, there is bubble? How to identify the speculative price? The article aims at after finding out the rules of the influence factors for housing price in Lanzhou,so as to stabilize the housing price and help to bring up the valuable suggestions for the healthy development of real estate market. First, supply and demand of commercial housing in Lanzhou City were studied, the lack of flexibility in the housing supply situation, the volatility of prices to changes in demand from the main factors. Second, housing prices and rents will be linked to asset pricing model used is included in housing price bubble based on the value and factors, and residential market in Lanzhou City, based on empirical test data. The results show that the present value of rent-based discount model can only partly explain the rise in house prices in Lanzhou City, the speculative bubble in housing prices is the explanation played a major role, which will help understand the current market price of real estate Growth in the non-rational phenomenon. Finally, the article in the level of demand and supply prices by factors of Lanzhou City, the analysis revealed the city’s general rules of commercial housing development and the question of how to effectively inhibit the urban housing market speculation, the housing market to supply and demand equilibrium.

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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban Economics and Management > The real estate economy
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