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The Research of the Country Differences of Current Imbalance and the Empirical Study of the Influencing Factors of Current Imbalance

Author: ZuoTianShu
Tutor: ChengLiWei
School: Harbin Institute of Technology
Course: Finance
Keywords: Current account imbalances structural factors internal factors Panel Data Model
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 35
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Abstract


In recent years, with emergence of the new situation of the international financial sector, the global current account imbalance becomes more and more serious, especially the rapid expansion of the current account deficit of the U.S. and the huge current account surplus of Japan, China, and other East Asian countries. In addition, at the present, the current account deficit and surplus concentrate in a few countries, and the amount of deficit and surplus is becoming larger and larger. All of these have brought enormous risks to the international financial markets and the global economy. So, the research of the country differences of the current imbalance and the empirical study of the influencing factors of the current imbalance are of great practical significance.On the basis of the researches at home and abroad, the paper defines the relative concepts about current account and current account imbalances, and analyzes the impact of current account imbalance on domestic economy and external economy, as well as the important position of current account in the balance of payment. And this paper with the descriptive statistics method analyzes the current situation of the current account imbalance, goods trade imbalance and services trade imbalances of 45 countries, 23 developed countries and 22 developing countries in the past 20 years and finds the country differences of current account imbalances. On the basis, the paper selects 10 important economic variables which influence the current account imbalance greatly. Based on the different classification of the 10 economic variables, the paper establishes the increasing regression model, the structural regression model, the internal factors model, the external factors model and other three panel data models. On this basis, the paper studies the factors which influence the current account imbalances of 45 countries, 23 developed countries and 22 developing countries from three the levels of current account, goods trade and services trade with the data of 45countries from 1988 to 2007. And the conclusion of the empirical studies are that structural factors and internal factors play leading roles in influencing current account imbalance and current account imbalances is mainly from the goods trade imbalances. On the basis of the present economic situation at home and abroad and the empirical results, the paper proposes some policy recommendations from the views of developed countries, developing countries and international co-operation.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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