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Management of Currency Composition of China’s Foreign Exchange Reserve after the RMB Exchange Rate Reform

Author: HaoZuoZuo
Tutor: ZhongXiaoBing
School: Harbin Institute of Technology
Course: International Trade
Keywords: Foreign exchange reserve Currency composition Floating rate systems
CLC: F832.6
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2009
Downloads: 101
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Abstract


Reasonable currency composition of foreign exchange reserve has great significance to the functioning of the foreign exchange reserve, Scientific management of foreign exchange reserve plays a vital role in adjusting the balance of payments and exchange rate stability. In a floating exchange rate system, holding foreign exchange reserve often means suffering losses because of the variable situation in the domestic and international foreign exchange market. Therefore, the countries of the world should take appropriate measures to manage foreign exchange reserve with a view to maximizeing extent to avoid the risk. Among them, how to choose a foreign exchange reserve currency,how to build the appropriate currency structure of foreign exchange reserve is a practical problem which all countries have to face in the management of official reserves. Therefore,China’s should attach importance to the management of currency composition.First of all, we analysis China’s objectives in the management of the currency composition, and under the conditions of certain managed objectives,by allocating different types of reserve currency reasonably, to achieve the objective which is the risk minimization or revenue maximization.According to the principles of reserve currency selection,which are economic strength, the stability of the currency and matching principles,combined with the actual situation of our country, and choose the dollar, yen, euro and pound sterling as reserve currency of our country ultimately, and take it as program layer of AGA-CAHP model.On the basis of comprehensive analysising the factors that impact the currency composition, in accordance with scientific,clarity,purpose,system optimization,comparability,operable,verifiable principles,we choose from the impact factors listed,which are reserve currency risks and benefits, trade structure, the structure of foreign debt and foreign investment structure as the main indicators of the China’s reserve currency composition management.and take the framework as the guideline layer of the model. In the application process,we combined genetic algorithms with analytic hierarchy process.At last ,we came to the conclusion that a layer weight of the reserve currency.Analysis the results, we believe that we should be appropriate to reduce the share of U.S. dollars in foreign exchange reserve, and increase the proportion of euro in the foreign exchange reserve.However,with the changeing influencing factors, The currency composition of foreign exchange reserve should be adjusted dynamically with a view to improve the management system.

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CLC: > Economic > Fiscal, monetary > Finance, banking > China's financial,banking > Exchange rate,foreign financial relations
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