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Study on the Lifecycle of Urban Development Based on the Continuous System Dynamics Modeling
Author: XuZuoZuo
Tutor: MiJiaNing
School: Harbin Institute of Technology
Course: Administration
Keywords: Lifecycle of Urban Development System Dynamics Modeling
CLC: F290
Type: Master's thesis
Year: 2008
Downloads: 126
Quote: 1
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Abstract
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Urban development is the basic condition for the advancement of the humansociety and also an important signal of the improvement on social civilization. Thehealthy, harmonious and quick development of the city contributes to the realizationof residents’happy life and also the sustainable development on total socialeconomy.During the development process of a city, it will go through different phases,just like a vital organism from birth, grown up to mature state, then decay, finallydead. Some ones got revised and all old things of the original city were rebuilt, fixedand renewed after the decay phase, as a result, these cities receive a new start of theadvancement that makes them get away from dieing out. On the other side, someones can’t recognize their development bottlenecks after the stage of decay, but stillwere kept stuffy state and set free to the surroundings. Consequently they reach theend of a development course and then die out. It shows that during the total processof urban development, there is a special law called lifecycle, and usually eachlifecycle has four different stages, namely birth, grown, mature and decay. After thedecay phase, some cities enter the next new lifecycle and go through the sameprocess as the last cycle. The difference between this new lifecycle and the last is thejumping-off point of this new cycle is higher than the last one’s. However some citiesmay die out and finish their lifecycle of urban development. Therefore, the researchon the theory of lifecycle of urban development process reveals its importanttheoretical and practical meaning for the urban harmonious advancement.By way of combined theory and modeling analysis, based on the research on thegeneral theory of urban development, theories of city decay, city competition powerand lifecycle, the researcher puts forward the theory of urban development lifecycle.In this thesis, it introduces the basic theory and general method, principle and testcourse of the System Dynamics in order to list its suitable conditions, advantages,disadvantages and limitations. Through using the Powersim software which is one ofthe software of System Dynamics, the researcher builds a reference model—urbandevelopment model of Urbania. Based on the construction steps of the model and theanalysis on its result, it is easy to judge which phase of the development lifecycle Ucity being in, which means the researcher can apply the theory of urban developmentlifecycle in practice. Then the built reference model of U city is transferred to theShenzhen’s urban development model on the base of some transition preconditions,and then this newly-built model is made some adjustments according to theShenzhen’s practical situations. According to the theory of urban developmentlifecycle and model analysis result, the author can make the judgment on the specialphase of Shenzhen in its development lifecycle. Finally the author puts forward somesuggestions on some predominate issues during the urban advancement for theShenzhen government in future, which also can be used as decision-making support.
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CLC: > Economic > Economic planning and management > Urban and municipal economy > Urban economic theory
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